In support of this effort three types of modeling products are being produced. The first is a monthly hindcast(updated monthly) that shows the latest estimated distribution of the debris. The second is a 9 month outlook product that takes into account forecast seasonal changes in winds and currents. The third product is a short term forecast of particular large items of debris that have been identified off the West Coast; the goal is to determine if the object will make landfall in the next 48 - 72 hours. The transport model being used is OR&R's General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME). Wind and current data and forecasts for the GNOME runs come from various publicly available sources.
The modeling results to date indicate that objects floating high in the water have come ashore beginning in the winter/spring of 2012 along the West Coast from the Northeast Gulf of Alaska to the Oregon shoreline. Then, with the transition from spring to summer, the modeling results indicate that the bulk of the debris along the West Coast moved south and offshore.
The tools and data used for the modeling provided useful results for both short term forecast and longer term outlook. However, the lack of field data to calibrate the modeling has resulted in large uncertainties. It has been impossible to predict what will come ashore, how much will come ashore, or when and where it will come ashore come with significant certainty.
![](images/flag.png)
![](images/blue_ribbon.png)