Global model forecast support for DYNAMO at NCEP

The Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign took place in the Indian Ocean from 1 October 2011 to 31 March 2012. The state of the atmosphere – ocean system was observed using a multitude of instruments which included radiosondes, radars, moorings, aircraft and ships. The campaign proved to be very successful as robust MJO activity occurred during nearly all of the observing period. NCEP and UMCP-ESSIC were funded by NOAA's Climate Program Office to provide real time monitoring and forecast support to DYNAMO. Among the tools used was the suite of global forecast models from NCEP [Global Forecast System (GFS), the ensemble GFS (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2)]. This study provides a brief description of the observed MJO variability during the campaign, outlines the forecast product strategy utilized and presents an evaluation of forecast skill for selected variables, specifically OLR, relative humidity, lower- and upper-level winds and ocean temperature. We conclude by discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the NCEP suite of models over the Indian Ocean.