Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Program Chairs: Duane E. Waliser , JPL ; Chidong Zhang , Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 5 January 2013

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 5 January 2013


Registration for Student Conference and Short Course
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

Sunday, 6 January 2013

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


Registration for Short Course and Conference for Early Career Professionals
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


WeatherFest
Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (Austin Convention Center)

Monday, 7 January 2013

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Registration Continues Through January 9
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

8:30 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Plenary Session
13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today's Weather, Water, and Climate Forecasting and Projections
Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today; the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; the First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Eighth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 16th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the First Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Sixth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Special Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts; the 10th Conference on Space Weather; the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction; the Sixth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 11th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the Robert A. Duce Symposium; the Third Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Fourth Conference on Environment and Health )
  8:30 AM
Opening Remarks (by AMS President Dr. Louis Uccellini and Co-Chairs Troy Kimmel/Ken Carey will introduce Texas and Local Representatives)
  8:35 AM
Warm Welcome to Austin!

  8:45 AM
Introduction of Guest Speakers (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

  8:50 AM
"Predicting Weather and Climate: Scientific Progress and Future Opportunities" Dr. Alan Thorpe, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
  9:10 AM
"River/Rainfall Forecast Fusion Cells" Major General Michael Walsh, US Army Corps of Engineers
  9:30 AM
"Cloudy with the Chance of Insight" Dr. Tony Hey, Microsoft Research
  9:50 AM
"Where Citizens are Looking" Dr. Nigel Snoad, Google Crisis Response
  10:10 AM
Audience Question and Answer (moderated by Dr. William (Bill) Hooke)
  10:25 AM
Closing Remarks (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 10
Medium-range, Sub-seasonal and Seasonal-scale Forecast Techniques and Modeling for Energy Demand Part I
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation )
Cochairs: Travis Hartman, MDA Information Systems, Inc (EarthSat Wx), Gaithersburg, MD; Stephen Bennett, EarthRisk Technologies, San Diego, CA; Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR, Boulder, CO
  4:30 PM
TJ10.3
  4:45 PM
TJ10.4
A seamless system for medium range, subseasonal and seasonal probabalistic forecasts of energy demand
Judith A. Curry, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. Belanger, M. Jelinek, V. Toma, and P. Webster

  5:00 PM
TJ10.5
Medium-Range Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting for Texas
Kristofer Y. Shrestha, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry, J. Belanger, J. Mittelman, J. Freedman, J. Zack, and P. Beaucage

  5:15 PM
TJ10.6
Subseasonal predictability of regional wind power generation
Jake Mittelman, Georgia Institute of Techonology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry, K. Shrestha, and J. Belanger

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Reception and Exhibits Opening
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Tuesday, 8 January 2013

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 27
Medium-range, Sub-seasonal and Seasonal-scale Forecast Techniques and Modeling for Energy Demand Part 2
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; and the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )
Cochairs: Travis Hartman, MDA Information Systems, Inc (EarthSat Wx), Gaithersburg, MD; Stephen Bennett, EarthRisk Technologies, San Diego, CA; Andrew E. Mercer, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS
  3:30 PM
TJ27.1
Global Climate Change: An Energy Industry Perspective
Jon Davis, Chesapeake Energy, Chicago, IL; and J. Darr and M. S. Russo
  3:45 PM
TJ27.2
Empirical models of climate prediction on subseasonal to seasonal time scales
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO
  4:00 PM
TJ27.3
Arctic Sea Ice Predictability Beyond the Seasonal Scale
Philip W. Jones, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and C. M. Bitz, E. P. Chassignet, M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke, W. Maslowski, and P. Posey
  4:30 PM
TJ27.5
  4:45 PM
TJ27.6
  5:00 PM
TJ27.7
Earth System Prediction Capability Demonstration Goal #1 – Improved 1-6 Week Forecasting of Extreme Weather Related to Blocking Events – Initial Directions
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and W. Higgins, A. Kumar, M. Chen, R. M. Dole, J. Perlwitz, M. Hoerling, T. M. Hamill, K. Pegion, J. M. Brown, R. Bleck, S. Sun, M. Fiorino, and M. S. Peng
  5:15 PM
TJ27.8

Wednesday, 9 January 2013

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


93rd AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)

Thursday, 10 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 1
MJO Symposium - Part I
Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Cochairs: Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA
  8:30 AM
1.1
Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation: Theoretical basis and practical strategty for improving prediction
B. Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and J. Y. Lee and X. Fu

  8:45 AM
1.2
Rethinking the Prediction of Intraseasonal Variability
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and H. Kim, V. E. Toma, and F. Hirata
  9:00 AM
1.3
  9:30 AM
1.5

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Poster Session
MJO Symposium Posters
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Cochairs: Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA
 
886
Initiation of the MJO vs. non-MJO convective events
C. Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Ling

 
887
Evolution and Vertical Structure of Diabatic and Moistening Processes in Contemporary Global Model Climatological Simulations
Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Jiang, N. P. Klingaman, P. xiavier, S. Woolnough, and J. Petch

 
888
Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: 20-Day Hindcast Intercomparison
Nicholas P. Klingaman, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and S. J. Woolnough

 
Poster 889 has been moved. New paper number 4.2A

 
Poster 890 has been moved. New paper number 2.4A

 
891
Radar Observations of MJO/Wave Interactions During DYNAMO/CINDY2011/AMIE
Amanda DePasquale, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Schumacher and A. D. Rapp

Poster PDF (4.2 MB)

 
892
Importance of cloud/precipitation processes on tropical intraseasonal oscillation
Suryun Ham, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and S. Y. Hong

 
893
Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: Initial results from the 2-day hindcasts
Prince K. Xavier, Met Office, UK, Exeter, United Kingdom; and J. Petch, D. E. Waliser, X. Jiang, S. Woolnough, N. P. Klingaman, and A. Shelly

 
894
Tropical Cyclone Activity over Northwest Western Australia in a Future Warming Climate
Diandong Ren, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 2
MJO Symposium - Part II
Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Cochairs: Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
  11:00 AM
2.1
The Madden-Julian Oscillation and its influence on the predictability of precipitation
Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and L. Carvalho
  11:15 AM
2.2
An OLR-based Index of MJO Evolution and Activity
George Kiladis, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, K. H. Straub, and S. N. Tulich
  11:30 AM
2.3
Real-time MJO Identification and Subseasonal Predictions
Edward Berry, EarthRisk Technologies, San Diego, CA; and K. M. Weickmann
  11:45 AM
2.4A
Investigating DYNAMO Hypotheses of the MJO Using the YOTC CloudSat-Centric, Collocated A-Train and ECMWF Data Set
Wei-Ting Chen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and D. E. Waliser, S. Lee, L. Pan, X. Jiang, J. L. Li, T. L. Kubar, and B. H. Kahn

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 3
MJO Symposium - Part III
Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Cochairs: Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA
  1:30 PM
3.1
  1:45 PM
3.2
MJO Prediction at ECMWF
Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
  2:00 PM
3.3
Using HADGEM3-AO initialised case studies to assess the impact of an interactive ocean on medium-range hindcast skill and MJO prediction
Ann Shelly, UK Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and D. Copsey, T. Johns, and J. M. Rodríguez
  2:15 PM
3.4
Global model forecast support for DYNAMO at NCEP
Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland / ESSIC / CICS-MD, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Gottschalck
  2:30 PM
3.5
Improving the MJO in the Hadley Centre climate model: The roles of entrainment and air-sea interactions
Nicholas P. Klingaman, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and S. J. Woolnough
  2:45 PM
3.6
MJO Prediction skill in ENSEMBLES
Waqar Younas, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada; and Y. Tang

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Levels 3 and 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 4
MJO Symposium - Part IV
Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Cochairs: Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
  3:30 PM
4.1
Intrinsic Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Wen-Wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN

 
Paper 4.2 has been moved. Now poster 889.A

  3:45 PM
4.2A
MJO Predictability of Coupled Models and Seasonal Variation
V. Krishnamurthy, COLA and George Mason University, Calverton, MD

  4:00 PM
4.3
The Madden Julian Oscillation and Global Atmospheric Predictability
Kyle MacRitchie, SUNY/University at Albany, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy
  4:30 PM
4.5
The impacts of air-sea and convective coupling on the daily predictability of tropical atmospheric anomalies
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh
  4:45 PM
4.6
Modified convection scheme in CAM to improve MJO predictability
Aneesh Subramanian, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and G. J. Zhang

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


AMS 93rd Annual Meeting Adjourns