Intensification of Transatlantic Aviation Turbulence in Response to Anthropogenic Climate Change

Atmospheric turbulence accounts for the majority of weather-related commercial aircraft incidents. Commercial aircraft encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year world-wide, injuring hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing airlines tens of millions of dollars in injury claims, and causing structural damage to planes. Clear-air turbulence, which occurs at cruise altitudes above clouds and storms, is difficult to avoid because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar. Clear-air turbulence is linked to upper-level jet streams, which are projected to be modified by anthropogenic climate change. However, the response of clear-air turbulence to climate change has not previously been studied.

Here we show using computer simulations that clear-air turbulence changes significantly within the world's busiest flight corridor — the transatlantic corridor between Europe and North America — when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled. In particular, at cruise altitudes within 50-75°N and 10-60°W in the winter months, each of the 21 clear-air turbulence measures computed in this study shows a significant increase in the median, mostly in the range 10-40%. Our results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by the middle of this century. If flight paths become more convoluted to avoid intensified patches of turbulence, then journey times will lengthen, and fuel consumption and emissions will consequently increase. Although previous research has demonstrated that aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate, our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation.