Sector Occupancy Analysis with the Adverse Weather Diversion Model DIVMET

The adverse weather diversion model DIVMET is applied to study the ATC sector occupancy during the passage of a squall line over Central Europe on July, 10, 2010. For that purpose DIVMET is coupled to the aviation traffic model NAVSIM. Flight plan data from 26.796 flights over Europe with scheduled and actual take-off time, resp. landing times, together with planned and actual radar based flown trajectories were analyzed. The latter were compared with the simulated ones over Austria which showed in general a good agreement. The weather caused change of sector occupancy values was calculated. The study demonstrated that DIVMET can successfully be coupled to a traffic model to simulate posteriori the shift of trajectories by dynamic adverse weather. One major application is the related ATC controller shift of workload during a passage of a storm. It is hoped that in future a forecast of that shift will become possible. To illustrate the basic blocking effect of adverse weather, a simple theoretical study was performed with an assumed homogeneous and isotropic route distribution but with the actual adverse weather over Austria. The results showed, as expected, a reduction of the flight density and thus also of the controller workload close to the storm due to their impermeability and a workload increase along the complex hull of a storm. Both studies showed the capability of DIVMET and the coupling to a traffic model and its successful application. Further applications are awaiting.