Model analysis for automated decision aids

The Atlanta Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) and the Atlanta Weather Forecast Office (WFO) are developing automated tactical decision aid (TDA) products for the Atlanta ARTCC and TRACON Traffic Management Units (TMU), who make the arrival flow decisions at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta, GA and Charlotte Douglas International Airport in Charlotte, NC. Model derived TDAs not only will reduce forecaster workload for producing products like the arrival and departure gate forecast, but may also be ingested into other FAA decision aids such as Monitor Alert, which is used to predict the traffic load on each air traffic control sector. However, two factors must be considered prior to selecting an atmospheric model for these tools. First, is consistency in products more important than accuracy, and second, what model renders the most accurate product for the required field? The Atlanta CWSU and WFO conducted joint studies on multiple models during all four weather seasons to determine model accuracy and consistency for use in various TMU TDAs. This presentation will include a description of how models were analyzed to determine how tactical decision aids could most accurately be displayed, with some examples.