TJ24.2 A Downscale Approach to Providing Inter-seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for the Mississippi River

Tuesday, 8 January 2013: 12:00 AM
Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)
Robert J. Ricks Jr., NOAA/NWS, Slidell, LA; and S. Van Cooten and M. Casey

Past investigations on determining El Niño – Southern Oscillation attributes to stream flows on the Mississippi River have been expanded to studies of other hemispheric and sub-hemispheric phenomena. Assessments were conducted on indices of the Pacific-North American, Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, Arctic, Pacific Decadal and Madden-Julian Oscillations. The indices were weighted by their level of attribution based on a stream flow climatology of the Lower Mississippi River. This study was an attempt to develop and improve skill in providing statistical-based probabilistic long range forecasts of stream flows in a three to six month lead time, based on antecedent teleconnection patterns and probable attributes. Operational considerations with regard to critical decision support for river navigation, industrial, and flood control activities would benefit with improved forecasting in the extended and inter-seasonal outlook time frame.

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner