Program: 27th Conference on Hydrology (93rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Program Chairs: Andrew W. Wood , NOAA/NWS Northwest River Forecast Center ; John B. Eylander , US Army Corps of Engineers ; Michael B. Ek , NOAA/NWS/NCEP

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Saturday, 5 January 2013

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 5 January 2013

Registration for Student Conference and Short Course

Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

Sunday, 6 January 2013

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 6 January 2013

Registration for Short Course and Conference for Early Career Professionals

Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013

Registration Open for Annual Meeting

Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013

WeatherFest

Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (Austin Convention Center)

Monday, 7 January 2013

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Registration Continues Through January 9

Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

8:30 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Plenary Session

13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today's Weather, Water, and Climate Forecasting and Projections

Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today; the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; the First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Eighth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 16th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the First Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Sixth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Special Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts; the 10th Conference on Space Weather; the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction; the Sixth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 11th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the Robert A. Duce Symposium; the Third Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Fourth Conference on Environment and Health )

8:30 AM

Opening Remarks (by AMS President Dr. Louis Uccellini and Co-Chairs Troy Kimmel/Ken Carey will introduce Texas and Local Representatives)

Recorded Presentation

8:35 AM

Warm Welcome to Austin!

8:45 AM

Introduction of Guest Speakers (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

8:50 AM

"Predicting Weather and Climate: Scientific Progress and Future Opportunities" Dr. Alan Thorpe, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Recorded Presentation

9:10 AM

"River/Rainfall Forecast Fusion Cells" Major General Michael Walsh, US Army Corps of Engineers

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

"Cloudy with the Chance of Insight" Dr. Tony Hey, Microsoft Research

Recorded Presentation

9:50 AM

"Where Citizens are Looking" Dr. Nigel Snoad, Google Crisis Response

Recorded Presentation

10:10 AM

Audience Question and Answer (moderated by Dr. William (Bill) Hooke)

Recorded Presentation

10:25 AM

Closing Remarks (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Spouses' Coffee

Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Coffee Break

Location: Ballroom D Foyer (Austin Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

From Predictions to Impact Based Decisions: Linking Water, Weather, Coastal and Climate

Location: Ballroom G (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications; the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction; and the First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise )

Moderator: Paul Sandifer, Chief Science Advisor, NOAA's National Ocean Service, Charleston, SC

Panelists: James Porter, Chief, Water System Operations, Bureau of Water Supply, NYC Department of Environmental Protection, Grahamsville, NY; Robert Hartman, NOAA/NWS, Sacramento, CA; John C. Schaake, Consulting Hydrologist, Annapolis, MD

11:00 AM

John Schaake Presentation

11:15 AM

NYC Water Supply by Jim Porter

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Session 1

Precipitation Processes and Observations for Atmospheric, Land Surface, and Hydrological Modeling Part I

Location: Ballroom E (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Cochairs: Pingping Xie, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; Thomas Adams, NOAA/NWS, Wilmington, OH

1:30 PM

1.1

INVITED Genesis of the South Asian High in Spring and Its Impact on the Asian Summer Monsoon Onset

Guo-Xiong Wu, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

1.2

Monsoon Structure and Variability as Represented in Observations, Reanalysis, and Models

Benjamin A. Cash, COLA, Calverton, MD

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

1.3

Analysis of the New Version 7 TMPA Real Time Retrospectively Processed Precipitation Record

David T. Bolvin, SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman, E. J. Nelkin, R. Adler, and E. Stocker

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 3

Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Part I

Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )

Chair: Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Washington, DC

Cochairs: John B. Eylander, US Army Corps of Engineers, Hanover, NH; Siegfried Schubert, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD

1:30 PM

TJ3.1

INVITED: The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS): Advancing the concept of climate early warning systems

Roger Pulwarty, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and C. McNutt, L. Darby, R. Webb, and J. Verdin

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

TJ3.2

INVITED: Assessment of the National Multi-Model Ensemble System for the Prediction of Drought Over the NIDIS Test-beds

Eric F. Wood, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. K. Roundy and X. Yuan

TJ3.3

INVITED: Drought and Water Supply in the Context of Foreign Policy

2:00 PM

TJ3.3A

The Impact of Soil Moisture and Snow Assimilation on NLDAS Drought Metrics

Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Washington, DC; and D. Mocko, S. V. Kumar, Y. Tian, Y. Xia, and M. B. Ek

2:15 PM

TJ3.4

Comparing evaporative sources using relative entropy – a tool to diagnose the origins of droughts

Paul A. Dirmeyer, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and J. Wei and M. Bosilovich

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Themed Joint Poster Session

Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )

Cochairs: Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Washington, DC; John B. Eylander, US Army Corps of Engineers, Hanover, NH; Siegfried D. Schubert, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD

The Global Drought Information System—A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

Michael J. Brewer, NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information, Stennis Space Center, MS; and R. Heim

Reformulation of the Drought Code in the Canadian Fire Weather Index System Implemented in New Zealand

Yang Yang, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and M. Uddstrom

Poster 25 has been moved. New Paper number TJ3.3A

How well is the physics of intense rainfall events in the Sahel captured by a regional climate?

Julien Crétat, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook and E. K. Vizy

Exploring the frequency of hydroclimate extremes on the Niger River using Monte Carlo methods

Asher Siebert, IRI, Palisades, NY; and M. N. Ward

Handout (925.5 kB)

HydroXtreme-MaP: A Global Real-time Hydrological Modeling System for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Xianwu Xue, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Hong, J. J. Gourley, R. F. Adler, and Y. Zhang

Soil moisture—precipitation feedback in the 2011 warm season drought in the Southern Great Plains

Hua Su, The University of Texas, Austin, TX; and R. E. Dickinson

Remote Sensing Detection of Droughts and Efficient Water Resource Allocation in Korea

Jihoon Jung, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and B. J. Kim and S. H. Ahn

A Comparison of the Summer 2011 Heat Wave and Drought on the Southern High Plains to previous Extreme Years

Jeffrey D. Vitale, NOAA/NWS, Lubbock, TX; and R. McQueen

Handout (1.7 MB)

Development of a Remote-Sensing Based Framework for Mapping Drought over North America

Christopher Hain, University of Maryland, Camp Springs, MD; and M. C. Anderson, X. Zhan, M. D. Svoboda, B. Wardlow, and I. E. Mladenova

The Utility of the Real-Time NASA Land Information System Data for Drought Monitoring Applications

Kristopher D. White, NOAA/NWSFO, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case

Manuscript (4.3 MB)

Handout (2.6 MB)

Factors affecting land surface model spin-up behavior in the high resolution North American Land Assimilation System (NLDAS)

Jiarui Dong, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Ek, B. Cosgrove, Y. Xia, and J. Meng

An integrative analysis of drought in the Southeastern United States

Jonghun Kam, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. Sheffield and E. F. Wood

Uncertainties, Relationships, and Optimal Blends of Ensemble-Mean NLDAS Drought Indices

Youlong Xia, NOAA/NCEP, College Park, MD; and M. B. Ek, D. Mocko, C. D. Peters-Lidard, J. Sheffield, J. Dong, and E. F. Wood

Assessing Future Changes of Extreme Surface Temperatures over the southern United States

Ze Yang, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and R. Fu and D. N. Fernando

Rainfall Anomaly Prediction Using Statistical Downscaling in a Multimodel Superensemble over Tropical South America

Bradford D. Johnson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti and V. Kumar

Poster Session

Precipitation Processes and Observations for Atmospheric, Land Surface, and Hydrological Modeling Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Chair: Pingping Xie, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD

Multi-Sensor Data Fusion for Hi-Resolution QPE Products over the CONUS

Eyal Amitai, NASA/GSFC/Chapman Univ., Greenbelt, MD

Handout (2.5 MB)

A comparison of precipitation occurrence from NCEP's StageIV QPE Product and CloudSat's Cloud Profiling Radar

Mark A. Smalley, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. S. L'Ecuyer

Handout (11.0 MB)

Evaluation of TRMM rain-rate estimates using ground measurements at different time scales

Jianxin Wang, NASA/GSFC and SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and D. B. Wolff, D. A. Marks, and J. L. Pippitt

Handout (1.2 MB)

An Examination of Dual-Polarization Radar-Derived Precipitation Estimates over New Mexico Burn Scars during the 2012 Monsoon

42A

Describing the DSD shape with the Mass Spectrum Standard Deviation

Christopher R. Williams, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA ESRL, Boulder, CO

Measurements of DSD Second Moment Based on Laser Extinction

John E. Lane, EASi-ESC, Kennedy Space Center, FL; and T. Kasparis, W. L. Jones, and P. T. Metzger

Manuscript (863.0 kB)

Handout (3.4 MB)

Understanding the hydrological affects of Tropical Cyclones over the Carolinas from an observational and modeling based perspective

Ronald D. Leeper, CICS/North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and O. P. Prat and B. Blanton

Characterizing multiscale space-time structure of tropical rainfall using measurements from a dense rain gauge network in Singapore

Pradeep V. Mandapaka, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore; and X. S. Qin

An Experimental Study of the Small-Scale Variability of Rainfall At the Southern Delmarva Peninsula

Rigoberto Roche, Florida International Univ., Miami, FL; and A. Tokay and P. G. Bashor

Finding Differentiating Characteristics between Tornado-Producing and non-Tornado-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems with Synergistic Usage of GOES Imagery and NMQ Data

Trisha Dawn Michael, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and J. Rushing, C. Cruz, K. S. Kuo, and T. Clune

Handout (1.2 MB)

Investigation of Storm Temporal Patterns using Gridded Meteorological Datasets for Hydrologic Modeling

Victoria Lynn Sankovich, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO; and R. J. Caldwell and J. F. England Jr.

Handout (1.8 MB)

Evaluation of the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) (NMQ) in the Southern Delmarva Peninsula

Frank Harris, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, md; and A. Tokay and X. Lin

Real-time Quality Control of 1-hour Rain Gauge Data Using a Multi-Senor Approach

Tye W. Parzybok, MetStat, Inc., Fort Collins, CO; and B. Clarke and B. C. Baranowski

Handout (1.6 MB)

Hydrologic Evaluation of TRMM-3B42 and GLDAS-CLM Precipitation Products over a Mid-size Basin

Hojjat Seyyedi, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and E. Beighley, J. McCollum, and E. Anagnostou

Characteristics of precipitating systems over Costa Rica using TRMM

Alexander Peterson, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and A. D. Rapp, O. W. Frauenfeld, S. M. Quiring, and E. B. Roark

Severe Storms Nowcasting over the New York metropolitan area

Ali Zahraei, NOAA-CREST Center - City College (CCNY) of the City University of New York (CUNY), New York, NY; and S. Mahani and R. Khanbilvardi

Evaluation of the error propagation of satellite precipitation estimates for hydrological applications

Aline Schneider Falck, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; and D. A. Vila and J. Tomasella

Warm rain features causing heavy rainfall under the humid East Asian environment and associated problems in estimating rain rate from space

Spatial area and distance convergences in different parts of the world using CFSR to force watershed modeling systems

Daniel R. Fuka, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and M. T. Walter, C. MacAlister, S. D. Solomon, T. S. Steenhuis, and Z. M. Easton

Characterizing Spatial Patterns and Climatology Trends using Monthly Rainfall Rates in Manila, Philippines

Karretta N. Venable, Howard University, Washington, DC; and V. Morris

Handout (1.2 MB)

Variability of Heavy Precipitation by Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Vortices Found in the Southern Plains

Heather Vazquez, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and R. S. Schumacher

A Satellite Perspective of the June 7-11 2012 Record Breaking Flood Event impacting Alabama and the Florida Panhandle

Josh Jankot, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Session 2

Precipitation Processes and Observations for Atmospheric, Land Surface, and Hydrological Modeling Part II

Location: Ballroom E (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Chair: Thomas Adams, NOAA/NWS, Wilmington, OH

4:00 PM

2.1

A High-Resolution Analysis of Daily Precipitation Climatology Reflecting the Impact of Topography across China

Anyuan Xiong, CMA National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing, China; and B. Xu, P. Xie, and Z. Chen

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

2.2

Status of Dual Pol QPE in the WSR-88D Network

Daniel S. Berkowitz, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and J. A. Schultz, S. Vasiloff, K. L. Elmore, C. D. Payne, and J. B. Boettcher

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (641.8 kB)

4:30 PM

2.3

Development of a High-Resolution Precipitation Climatological Dataset from the Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA)

Yan Luo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and D. Hou

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

2.4

Improving analysis of heavy to extreme precipitation with conditional bias-penalized optimal estimation

Ridwan Siddique, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX; and D. J. Seo, Y. Zhang, and D. Kim

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (477.5 kB)

5:00 PM

2.5

Building a climatology of precipitation system organization in the Carolinas using the NOAA radar-based Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimation (MPE) product

Thomas M. Rickenbach, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Nieto-Ferreira, S. E. Stevens, B. R. Nelson, and B. Blanton

5:15 PM

2.6

Depth-area-duration characteristics of storm rainfall in Texas using Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimates

John A. McEnery, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX; and K. Jitkajornwanich

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 7

Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Part II

Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )

Cochairs: Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Washington, DC; John B. Eylander, US Army Corps of Engineers, Hanover, NH; Siegfried D. Schubert, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD

4:00 PM

TJ7.1

Drought depiction, prediction and application: Implications for GDIS

Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI/Columbia University), Palisades, NY; and K. Mo and A. G. Barnston

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

TJ7.2

A Modeling Study of the On-Going Drought and Heat Wave Over the United States

Siegfried Schubert, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Wang, R. D. Koster, and M. Suarez

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

TJ7.3

CWRF Application for U.S. Drought Forecasts

Xin-Zhong Liang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. Chen and S. Su

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

TJ7.4

Application of NCEP Land Data Assimilation Systems for Global and Regional Drought Analysis, Monitoring and Prediction

Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Xia, J. Meng, and J. Dong

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

TJ7.5

East African Drought Prediction and Humanitarian Responses in 2012

Chris C. Funk, USGS EROS, Santa Barbara, CA; and G. Husak, J. Michaelsen, A. Hoell, and J. Verdin

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

TJ7.6

Evaluation of a Remotely Sensed Evaporative Stress Index for Monitoring Patterns of Anomalous Water Use

Martha C. Anderson, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, MD; and C. Hain, J. A. Otkin, and X. Zhan

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Reception and Exhibits Opening

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Tuesday, 8 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Themed Joint Session 13

Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Part III

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )

Chair: John B. Eylander, US Army Corps of Engineers, Hanover, NH

8:30 AM

TJ13.1

Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extremes in Supporting Regional Water Resource Planning over the South-Central United States

Rong Fu, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and D. N. Fernando, L. Yin, T. Ren, Z. Yang, and A. Bowerman

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

TJ13.2

Using a standardized GRACE dataset to investigate regional-scale drought severity

Alys Thomas, University of California, Irvine, CA; and J. S. Famiglietti

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

TJ13.3

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Drought Persistence in the Southeastern United States

Christopher F. Labosier, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and T. W. Ford

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

TJ13.4

Experimental prediction of severe droughts on seasonal time scales with GFDL High-Resolution Atmosphere Model

Zhitao Yu, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

TJ13.5

Land-atmosphere coupling and seasonal forecast skill over the Great Plains and the Southeast United States

Joshua K. Roundy, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. R. Ferguson and E. F. Wood

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 14

Water Resources Applications of Hydrometeorological Analyses and Predictions Part I

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS) )

Cochairs: Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, Salt Lake City, UT; Larry E. Brazil, Riverside Technology, Inc., Fort Collins, CO

8:30 AM

TJ14.1

Using Hydrologic Forecasts for Dynamic Management of New York City's Reservoir Releases for the Delaware River Basin

W. Joshua Weiss, Hazen and Sawyer, Baltimore, MD; and L. Wang, P. Rush, and T. Murphy

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.0 MB)

8:45 AM

TJ14.2

INVITED Forecast-Based Reservoir Management for Turbidity Control: A Case Study using New York City's Operations Support Tool

Lucien Wang, NOVA Consulting & Engineering, New York, NY; and W. J. Weiss, G. Pyke, M. Zion, and J. Porter

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

TJ14.3

Hindcasts – A Crucial Component of Water Resources Forecast Services

Dan Sheer, Hydrologics Inc, Columbia, MD; and J. C. Schaake

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

TJ14.4

INVITED Statistical Post-Processing To Improve Hydrometeorological Forecasts

Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; and A. Ye, Y. Tao, and M. Xiao

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

TJ14.5

Assessment of uncertainties on the impact of climate change on water resources management using an integrated Earth System Model: application over the Snake River Basin

Nathalie Voisin, PNNL, Seattle, WA; and M. Huang, H. Li, R. Leung, and M. Wigmosta

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Spouses' Coffee

Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Poster Session

Advances in Estimating Evaporation, Evaporative Demand, and Associated Applications Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Chairs: Michael Hobbins, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; Martha C. Anderson, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, MD

National Weather Service Forecast Reference Evapotranspiration and Verification across the Western US

Cynthia K. Palmer, NOAA/NWS, Shreveport, LA; and H. D. Osborne

Handout (1.2 MB)

CoCoRaHS: Volunteer Observers Taking Reference Evapotranspiration Measurements During 2012

Henry Reges, CoCoRaHS/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and N. J. Doesken, N. Newman, W. A. Ryan, Z. Schwalbe, and J. Turner

Handout (1.6 MB)

Advantages of Using a Raster Based Surface Energy Balance Model for Calculating Vegetation Evapotranspiration

Poster 62 has been moved. New paper number is 4A.3A

Evaluating the Complementary Relationship for Estimating Evapotranspiration from Arid Shrublands

Justin L. Huntington, DRI, Reno, NV; and J. Szilagyi, S. Tyler, and G. Pohll

A Comparison of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Using Thronthwaite and Penman-Monteith Parameterizations for Potential Evapotranspiration

Daniel J. McEvoy, DRI, Reno, NV; and J. L. Huntington and J. T. Abatzoglou

Handout (587.0 kB)

Examining flash drought development using the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)

Jason Otkin, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, I. E. Mladenova, J. B. Basara, and M. D. Svoboda

Poster 66 has been moved. New paper number is 4A.6A

PBO-H2O: GPS Sensing of Variability in Snow, Vegetation, and Soil Moisture in the Western United States

John J. Braun, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. M. Larson, E. E. Small, and K. Boniface

Handout (3.5 MB)

Coupled water and heat flow in homogeneous and heterogeneous porous media

Zhenlei Yang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and B. P. Mohanty

Poster Session

Benchmarking, identification, and verification in land surface modeling and data assimilation Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Chair: Sujay Kumar, NASA/GSFC, Washington, DC

Comparison of Four Precipitation Forcing Datasets in Land Information System Simulations over the Continental U.S

Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc., Huntsville, AL; and S. V. Kumar, R. J. Kuligowski, and C. Langston

Manuscript (6.2 MB)

Handout (3.0 MB)

Influence of remotely-sensed vegetation conditions as an input parameter on the VIC hydrologic model

Trent Wayne Ford, Texas A&M University Department of Geography, Bryan, TX

CREST-Snow Analysis and Field Experiment (CREST-SAFE): Continuous In Situ Observations of Snow Physical Properties and Microwave Emission

Tarendra Lakhankar, NOAA-CREST, The City College of the City University of New York, New York, NY; and J. Muñoz, P. Romanov, R. Khanbilvardi, and A. Powell

Modeling Water and Heat Transfer in the Soil-Mulch-Atmosphere System

Xia Zhang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Effective Soil Moisture Estimation and its Uncertainty using Multi-Model Simulation based on Bayesian Model Averaging

Jonggun Kim, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and B. P. Mohanty and Y. Shin

Benchmarking of the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange Model (CABLE) using the Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) and the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT)

Jatin Kala, University of New South Wales, Kensington, Australia; and G. Abramowitz, C. Carouge, M. Decker, J. Evans, J. F. Exbrayat, A. Hirsch, and A. Pitman

Evaluating LSM water budgets in the framework of the LIS-HyMAP system

Augusto getirana, NASA/GSFC, Washington, DC; and S. Kumar and C. Peters-Lidard

Multiscale evaluation of the improvements in surface snow simulation

Sujay V. Kumar, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. D. Peters-Lidard, D. Mocko, and Y. Tian

Handout (2.0 MB)

Assessment of the Community Land Model version 04 snow model output estimates

Ally M. Toure, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Rodell, Z. L. Yang, Y. Zhang, Y. Kwon, and H. Beaudoing

Handout (2.5 MB)

Improving simulation of water table depth in NOAH-MP by coupling LEAFHydro's Groundwater Scheme

Mingxing Li, the University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and Z. L. Yang

Evaluation of Model Simulated Soil Moisture Using Long-term In Situ Data from Iowa

Shanshui Yuan, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and S. M. Quiring

Simultaneous estimation of downward shortwave and longwave radiation, vapor pressure, and diurnal temperature cycles

Theodore Bohn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. Livneh, B. Nijssen, J. Oyler, S. W. Running, and D. P. Lettenmaier

Development of Operational Streamflow and Soil Moisture Forecasts for the Southeastern U.S

Tushar Sinha, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Kumar, S. Arumugam, and C. Peters-Lidard

Themed Joint Poster Session

Water Resources Applications of Hydrometeorological Analyses and Predictions Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS) )

Cochairs: Larry E. Brazil, Riverside Technology, Inc., Fort Collins, CO; Andrew W. Wood, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Improving Efficiency and Accuracy in Weather Forecasting and Climate Monitoring by Using IT and ICT technology as Infrastructure

Isack Baliyendeza Yonah, Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA), Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; and W. K. Kikwasi

Variability in Sublimation in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Morgan C. Phillips, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and N. J. Doesken

Handout (3.9 MB)

Identification of California Inter-Climate Division Modes of Seasonal Precipitation Variability (1895-6 thru 2011-12 seasons)

Charles J. Fisk, Naval Base Ventura County, Point Mugu, CA

Manuscript (475.3 kB)

Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

Gerald N. Day, Riverside Technology, inc., Fort Collins, CO; and J. C. Schaake, M. Thiemann, S. Draijer, and L. Wang

The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment

John C. Schaake, Consultant, Annapolis, MD; and A. W. Wood, J. Thielen, F. Pappenberger, and R. Hartman

Diagnostic Tools for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Operations

John C. Schaake, Consultant, Annapolis, MD; and R. Hartman

Assessment of hydrological uncertainty in a changing climate in the Pacific Northwest River Basins

Venkataramana Sridhar, Boise State University, Boise, ID; and W. T. A. Jaksa, X. Jin, M. Khanal, and A. Tyagi

Poster 89 has been moved. New paper number TJ24.2A

Assessment of Precipitation Mappings Using Distributed Hydrologic Modeling

Chengmin Hsu, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. Johnson and R. Cifelli

Assessment of Warm-Season Rainfall Variability and Trends over the Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley

Jamie L. Dyer, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Session 3A

Advances in Estimating Evaporation, Evaporative Demand, and Associated Applications Part I

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Chair: Michael Hobbins, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT

11:00 AM

3A.1

INIVITED -- MODIS and Complementary Relationship aided ET mapping

Jozsef Szilagyi, University of Nebraska-Lincoln/Budapest University of Technology, Lincoln, NE

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

3A.2

INVITED Monitoring evapotranspiration and water resources with thermal infrared geostationary sensors: An intercomparison with model-based ET predictions and tower observations

Christopher Hain, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Camp Springs, MD; and M. C. Anderson, X. Zhan, and M. T. Yilmaz

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

3A.3

Initial Assessment of Global Terrestrial Evaporation Datasets Developed for the GEWEX LandFlux Initiative

Eric F. Wood, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and M. Liang, M. Pan, B. Mueller, S. I. Seneviratne, C. Jimenez, and M. McCabe

11:45 AM

3A.4

The Impact of Vegetation Conditions on Land-Atmosphere Interactions During an Anomalously Wet Period

Jeffrey B. Basara, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Tardif-Huber, D. X. Vanegas, B. G. Illston, C. Biradar, and W. P. Kustas

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Precipitation Processes and Observations for Atmospheric, Land Surface, and Hydrological Modeling Part III

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Chair: Thomas Adams, NOAA/NWS, Wilmington, OH

11:00 AM

3B.1

Snowfall Rate Retrieval using AMSU/MHS Measurements

Huan Meng, NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research, College Park, MD; and B. Yan, R. R. Ferraro, and C. Kongoli

11:15 AM

3B.2

Inferring the Temporal Sampling Uncertainty of Satellite Precipitation in Data-Sparse Regions

Janice Bytheway, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. D. Kummerow

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

3B.3

Validation of FY-3B MWRI Rain Rate over China

Bin Xu, CMA National Meteorological Information Centre, Beijing, China; and L. Jiang, C. Shi, P. Xie, R. You, F. Wang, and Y. Ruan

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

3B.4

A 15-Year High - Resolution Gauge – Satellite Merged Analysis of Precipitation

Pingping Xie, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Joyce and S. Wu

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 20

Decision Making using Advanced Technology: Risk-based Predictions and Risk-informed Communication for the Water Information Customer

Location: Room 12A (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); and the 27th Conference on Hydrology )

Chair: Larry E. Brazil, Riverside Technology, Inc., Fort Collins, CO

CoChair: Andrew W. Wood, NOAA/NWS Northwest River Forecast Center, Portland, Oregon, OR

11:00 AM

TJ20.1

Leveraging CHPS for NWS Weather Forecast Office Decision Support

Robert Hartman, NOAA/NWS, Sacramento, CA; and H. Opitz and N. Dean

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

TJ20.2

Use of Hydrologic Forecasts in Reservoir and Water Supply Management: Formulation, Testing and Implementation

Dan Sheer, Hydrologics Inc, Columbia, MD

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

TJ20.3

State of the Art Quality/Quantity Management: New York City's Operations Support Tool

Grantley Pyke, Hazen and Sawyer, Baltimore, MD; and J. Porter

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

TJ20.4

Use of Hydrologic Monitoring and Predictions to Support Water Management: Bureau of Reclamation Applications in Development of Monthly to Seasonal Operations Outlooks

Levi D. Brekke, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Joint Session 1

Advances in Land Data Assimilation Part I

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )

Chairs: Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; Rolf H. Reichle, NASA/GSFC and Univ. of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD

1:30 PM

J1.1

Assimilation of GlobSnow snow water equivalent in the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System

Stéphane Bélair, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and C. Derksen, B. Bilodeau, M. Carrera, S. Dyck, D. charpentier, N. Gauthier, and L. Wang

1:45 PM

J1.2

Assimilation of SMOS Observations for science development of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product

Rolf H. Reichle, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. M. De Lannoy, W. T. Crow, R. D. Koster, J. Kimball, and Q. Liu

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J1.3

Assimilation of geostationary satellite land surface skin temperature observations into the GEOS-5 global atmospheric modelling and assimilation system

Clara Draper, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. H. Reichle and Q. Liu

2:15 PM

J1.4

Evaluation of Multi-Model Simulated Products in NLDAS-2

Youlong Xia, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. B. Ek, J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, D. Mocko, C. D. Peters-Lidard, and D. P. Lettenmaier

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J1.5

Evaluation of New and Upgraded Land-Surface Models in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)

David M. Mocko, SAIC at NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. D. Peters-Lidard, S. V. Kumar, Y. Xia, M. B. Ek, and J. Dong

2:45 PM

J1.6

China Land Soil Moisture EnKF Data Assimilation Based on Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Chunxiang Shi, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and Z. Xie, X. Tian, M. Liang, and X. Yang

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 24

Water Resources Applications of Hydrometeorological Analyses and Predictions Part II

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS) )

Chair: Levi D. Brekke, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO

1:30 PM

TJ24.1

A New Training Partnership Focused on Climate Change Impact on Water Resources

Wendy Schreiber-Abshire, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and M. Kelsch, L. D. Brekke, S. Gangopadhyay, and C. Hennig

Recorded Presentation

TJ24.2

A Downscale Approach to Providing Inter-seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for the Mississippi River

1:45 PM

TJ24.2A

Assessment of Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Himalayan Headwater Watershed

Ram P. Neupane, Baylor University, Waco, TX; and J. D. White

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

TJ24.3

GEWEX and its new Grand Science Questions

P.J. Van Oevelen, International GEWEX Project Office, Columbia, MD

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

TJ24.4

Development and Evaluation of a Global Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting System

Yu Zhang, Universtiy of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Hong, J. J. Gourley, X. Wang, and X. Xue

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

TJ24.5

Water-Resource Assessments of Basins within Developed and Developing Countries: The Role of Regional Climate Uncertainty, Policy, and Economics

C. Adam Schlosser, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and C. Arndt, E. Blanc, K. Strzepek, C. Fant, A. Gueneau, X. Gao, H. Jacoby, A. P. Sokolov, and J. Thurlow

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

TJ24.6

INVITED Use of Hydrologic Monitoring and Predictions to Support Water Management: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Applications in Support of Hourly to Weekly River Regulation

David Raff, US Army Corps of Engineers, Alexandria, VA

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President

Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Session 4A

Advances in Estimating Evaporation, Evaporative Demand, and Associated Applications Part II

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Chair: Martha C. Anderson, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, MD

3:30 PM

4A.1

A Historical Perspective on the Calculation of Evapotranspiration Using the Combination Method

Robert J. Lascano, USDA/ARS, Lubbock, TX

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

4A.2

Conditioning of NLDAS, NARR and arid weather station data to improve their representation of well-watered (reference) environments associated with irrigated agriculture

Richard G. Allen, University of Idaho, Kimberly, ID; and J. Huntington, A. Kilic, H. debruin, and A. Joros

Recorded Presentation

4A.3

Uncertainty of Evapotranspiration Estimates Using Simulated HyspIRI Data over Jornada, NM Rangeland

4:00 PM

4A.3A

Impact of Canopy Representations on Regional Evapotranspiration

Liyi Xu, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. T. Paw U and R. D. Pyles

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4A.4

LST-based Analytical Solution of Conductance and Evapotranspiration: Validation over All Semi-Arid FLUXNET Sites

Kaniska Mallick, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. Fisher, A. Jarvis, J. H. Lee, and D. Niyogi

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4A.5

Uncertainty in evapotranspiration from uncertainty in land surface temperature

Joshua Fisher, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. H. Lee, G. Hulley, C. Hughes, K. Mallick, and S. Hook

Recorded Presentation

4A.6

Physical causes and implications of evaporative-demand change over land across the CMIP5 global warming simulations

4:45 PM

4A.6A

Sources of Discrepancies between Satellite and Land Surface Model Evaporation Estimates

Alan Lipton, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA; and P. Liang, J. F. Galantowicz, J. L. Moncet, C. Jimenez, C. Prigent, F. Aires, and G. Uymin

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4A.7

Application of a modified SEBAL evapotranspiration algorithm for improved understanding and prediction of hydrologic behavior in highly altered landscapes

Alicia Kinoshita, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO; and T. Hogue and J. Kim

5:15 PM

4A.8

Development of a Reservoir Meteorological Network for Estimating Evaporation to Aid in Operations, Policies, and Procedures

Justin L. Huntington, DRI, Reno, NV; and T. Mihvec, R. Allen, M. Spears, S. Rajagopal, S. Gangopaday, and D. Eckhart

Session 4B

Benchmarking, Identification, and Verification in Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Chair: Sujay Kumar, NASA/GSFC, Washington, DC

3:30 PM

4B.1

Benchmarking: An International Model Comparison

Martin Best, UKMO, Exeter, United Kingdom; and G. Abramowitz, G. Balsamo, E. Blyth, A. A. Boone, P. A. Dirmeyer, M. B. Ek, R. D. Koster, S. V. Kumar, T. Oki, C. D. Peters-Lidard, A. Pitman, J. Polcher, J. A. Santanello, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and P. Viterbo

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

4B.2

INVITED The International Land Model Benchmarking Project (ILAMB)

Forrest M. Hoffman, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and J. T. Randerson, D. M. Lawrence, E. M. Blythe, and M. Mu

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

4B.3

Approaches to defining a priori performance expectations in model benchmarking

Gab Abramowitz, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4B.4

On the quality of re-analysis and merged microwave spaceborne soil moisture products: global trends and ability to represent in situ measurements

Clément Albergel, ECMWF, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and G. Balsamo and P. de Rosnay

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4B.5

INVITED Benchmarking LSM root-zone soil moisture predictions using satellite-based vegetation indices

Wade T. Crow, USDA, Beltsville, MD; and S. V. Kumar and J. Bolten

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4B.6

Dissecting soil moisture-precipitation coupling

Jiangfeng Wei, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and P. A. Dirmeyer

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4B.7

Diagnosing current land surface models' ability to represent snowpack evolution in complex terrain and forested Central Rockies

Fei Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Barlage, M. Tewari, R. Rasmussen, Y. Bao, J. Jin, D. P. Lettenmaier, B. Livneh, C. Lin, G. Miguez-Mancho, G. Y. Niu, L. Wen, and Z. L. Yang

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4B.8

Evaluation of Advanced Land Surface Models in the NLDAS Testbed

Xitian Cai, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and Y. Xia, Z. L. Yang, M. Huang, H. Wei, and M. B. Ek

Recorded Presentation

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Duce Symposium Banquet

Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

Wednesday, 9 January 2013

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Joint Session 2

Advances in Land Data Assimilation Part II

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )

Chair: Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

8:30 AM

J2.1

The Optimality of Potential Rescaling Approaches in Land Data Assimilation

M. Tugrul Yilmaz, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, MD; and W. T. Crow

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J2.2

Comparison of In-Situ and Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture Observations under Different Types of Land Use and Land Cover in Oklahoma

Elizabeth S. Harris, Texas A&M University , College Station, TX; and T. W. Ford

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J2.3

The Spatial Scale of Model Errors and Assimilated Retrievals in a Terrestrial Water Storage Assimilation System

Barton A. Forman, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. H. Reichle

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J2.4

Where does the irrigation water go? An estimate of the contribution of irrigation to precipitation using MERRA

Jiangfeng Wei, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and P. A. Dirmeyer, D. Wisser, M. Bosilovich, and D. Mocko

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J2.5

Assimilation of remotely sensed hydrological datasets in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)

Sujay V. Kumar, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. D. Peters-Lidard, D. Mocko, M. B. Ek, and Y. Xia

9:45 AM

J2.6

Assimilation of the MODIS Snow Cover Fraction Data Set through the Coupled Data Assimilation Research Testbed and the Community Land Model

Yongfei Zhang, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and T. Hoar, Z. L. Yang, J. Anderson, A. M. toure, and M. Rodell

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 32

The Verification of Hydrometeorological Predictions: Theory, Methods and Case Studies

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )

Chair: Scott Sellars, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA

8:30 AM

TJ32.1

Hidden Error Variance Theory: Application to Ensemble Post-Processing

Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRC/NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

TJ32.2

HMT-West lessons learned—I: Appropriate QPF verification techniques

Edward Tollerud, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, P. Oldenburg, T. L. Fowler, S. Stoytchev, and B. G. Brown

9:00 AM

TJ32.3

HMT-West Lessons Learned—II: Use of MET for Evaluation and Diagnostics During Forecast Experiments

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and E. I. Tollerud, B. J. Etherton, J. H. Gotway, P. Oldenburg, T. L. Fowler, B. G. Brown, S. Stoytchev, and L. E. Coco

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

TJ32.4

Applying a single-observation-forecast neighbourhood framework to the verification of km-scale NWP

Marion P. Mittermaier, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

TJ32.5

Evaluation of TRMM Daily Precipitation Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall using PACRAIN Data

Yingjun Chen, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and E. Ebert, K. J. E. Walsh, and N. E. Davidson

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

TJ32.6

Intercomparison of Downscaling Methods on Hydrological Application for Northeast United States Earth System Model

Ping Yang, CUNY, New York, NY; and C. J. Vorosmarty and B. Fekete

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Spouses' Coffee

Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President

Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Joint Session 3

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part I

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Om Tripathi, University of Reading, Reading,

10:30 AM

J3.1

A hydrologist's view of climate model downscaling for assessments of the hydrology and water resources implications of climate change

Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J3.2

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Climate Change Results

Linda O. Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO

11:00 AM

J3.3

Applications of RCMs for Understanding Climate Change in the Central US

Eugene S. Takle, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. J. Anderson

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J3.4

Regional Climate Models' Dynamic Downscaling Ability and Major Factors that Affect this Ability

Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and F. De Sales, R. Vasic, T. Sato, Y. Gao, and L. Druyan

11:30 AM

J3.5

Understanding the role of local scale climate drivers over Africa using the GA3-based regional climate model

Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Jones and J. Rodriguez

11:45 AM

J3.6

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP 6.0

Tanya L. Otte, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and C. G. Nolte, G. Faluvegi, and D. Shindell

Session 5

Global Flood Forecasting and Mapping

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Chair: Bart Nijssen, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Cochairs: Curt Barrett, Advisor to USAID-OFDA, Washington, DC; Sezin Tokar, USAID, Washington, DC

10:30 AM

5.1

Advances and Challenges in Real-Time Flash Flood Warning Worldwide

Konstantine P. Georgakakos, Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA; and T. M. Carpenter, E. Shamir, C. Spencer, R. Graham, R. Jubach, J. Sperfslage, W. Grabs, P. Chen, S. Tokar, C. Barrett, and R. J. Kuligowski

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

5.2

Applications of Climate Models for Improved Decision Support Services

Wassila Mamadou Thiaw, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD

11:00 AM

5.3

Status of a Real-time Global Flood Estimation System Using Satellite Rainfall Information and a Hydrological Model

Robert F. Adler, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and H. Wu and Y. Tian

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

5.4

Too much Water, Too little Time: Enhancing the Warning against Flash Flood Hazards in Southern Africa

Eugene Poolman, South African Weather Service, Pretoria, South Africa

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5.5

Regional Flood Information System for Flood Forecasting in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region

Mandira S. Shrestha, International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal, Nepal; and V. K. Khadgi, C. Dorji, M. S. Hossain, M. Hossain, G. Rajkarnikar, M. Ahmad, and R. A. Khan

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5.6

Black Sea and Middle East Flash Flood Guidance System (BSME-FFG) Implementation

Ismail Gunes, Turkish Meteorological Service, Ankara, Turkey; and M. Yildirim, H. Bacanli, and A. Sayin

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.0 MB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Lecture 1

Robert E. Horton Lecture

Location: Room 4ABC (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

L.1

In the next decade we will mine the meteorological predictability associated with measured storage of atmospherically-accessible water on land-surfaces

Jim Shuttleworth, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 38

Tools for making use of climate predictions and earth systems analysis: GIS and Python Part I

Location: Room 12B (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Third Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )

Chair: Johnny Wei-Bing Lin

1:30 PM

TJ38.1

Reducing Barriers to the Use of Climate Data in Adaptation Planning (invited)

Richard B. Rood, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

TJ38.2

Usable Science—integration of atmospheric data with traditional GIS tools (invited)

Jennifer Boehnert, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and O. Wilhelmi

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Joint Poster Session

Advances in Land Data Assimilation Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )

Chair: Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

505

Soil Moisture Assimilation of Space-Based L-Band Passive Data for SMOS and SMAP cal-val Field Campaigns over Canada

Stephane Belair, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and M. Carrera, S. Dyck, B. Bilodeau, N. Gauthier, and M. Abrahamowicz

506

The Effect of Revised Soil and Vegetation Properties on Simulated GEOS-5 Land Surface Hydrology

Gabriëlle J.M. De Lannoy, KULeuven, Greenbelt, MD; and R. H. Reichle, R. D. Koster, and S. Mahanama

507

A study of biomass allocation schemes in A Land Surface Model

Qiudan Dai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Wang

508

Globally estimating root mean square errors in remotely sensed soil moisture

Clara Draper, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. H. Reichle, R. de Jeu, V. Naeimi, R. Parinussa, and W. Wagner

509

Assimilation of Microwave Brightness Temperature in a Land Data Assimilation System with Multi-Observation Operators

Zhenghui Xie, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and B. Jia, X. Tian, J. Liu, and C. Shi

Handout (1.0 MB)

510

Dual Assimilation of Microwave and Thermal-Infrared Satellite Observations of Soil Moisture into NLDAS for Improved Drought Monitoring

Christopher Hain, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL; and M. C. Anderson, W. T. Crow, X. Zhan, and J. Mecikalski

511

Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture Data Products in the NCEP Global Forecast System

Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhan, M. Ek, J. Liu, J. Meng, J. Dong, and H. Wei

512

Assimilating Remotely Sensed Satellite Derived Data with Land Surface Model Derived Data: Diagnosing and Reconciling Differences

Rosalyn F. MacCracken, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and P. Houser, E. Wood, J. Sheffield, D. Lettenmaier, R. T. Pinker, C. D. Kummerow, M. Pan, H. Gao, A. Sahoo, and J. Bytheway

513

Development of Genetic Algorithm based Hidden Markov Model for Root Zone Soil Moisture Predictions

Yongchul Shin, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and B. P. Mohanty and A. Ines

514

Modeling the Regional Effects of Irrigation in the Middle East and North Africa

515

Using small watershed real-time streamflow gaging stations coupled with watershed modeling systems as real-time spatial precipitation networks

Zachary M. Easton, Virginia Tech, Painter, VA; and M. T. Walter, T. S. Steenhuis, S. D. Solomon, C. MacAlister, M. Z. Fuka, and D. R. Fuka

516

Statistical upscaling of dynamic terrain state properties using a Symbolic Aggregate approXimation (SAX) approach

Susan Frankenstein, CRREL, Hanover, NH

Handout (2.1 MB)

Themed Joint Poster Session

Flood Prediction, Analysis, Decision Support and Management Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )

Chair: Dong-Jun Seo, University of Texas, Arlington, TX

517

Rice University FEMA Project

Andrew Juan, Rice University, Houston, TX; and N. Z. Fang

518

“Flood Forecast Challenges in the Middle Atlantic Region During Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee”

519

Anaylsis of Flood and Debris Flow Hazards Following Short Duration, High Intensity Rainfall Events on New Mexico Burn Scar Areas During Summer 2011 and 2012

Kerry Jones, NOAA/NWSFO, Albuquerque, NM; and A. C. Tillery

520

Examining Hurricane Rainfall Patterns in the Upper Gulf of Mexico

Roni Deitz, Rice University, Houston, TX; and P. B. Bedient and M. Horn

521

A simple model for monthly river flow forecasting

Xubin Zeng, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. L. Kiviat, K. Sakaguchi, and A. M. A. Mahmoud

522

The Major June 2006 and September 2011 East Coast Flash Flood Events: A Comparison Study

Christopher Michael Gitro, NOAA/NWS, Johnson City, NY

523

The Ability of Radar Data Assimilation to Improve Warm Season Heavy Rainfall Forecasts for use in Hydrologic Models

Ben A. Moser, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and R. Mantilla

Manuscript (1011.9 kB)

524

From Floyd to Irene: heavy rainfall events and associated flooding in New Jersey

Daniel A. Zarrow, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ; and D. A. Robinson

525

Complexities in power-law modeling of river discharge time series

Matthew C. Bowers, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung and J. Gao

526

Intermittent chaos in river flow dynamics

Jianbo Gao, Wright State University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung

527

Developing a Real-Time Probabilistic Riverine Flood Inundation Map for the Tonawanda Creek in Western New York

Johnathan P. Kirk, Kent State University, Kent, OH

528

Evaluation of different ensemble configurations for the analysis and prediction of flash-flood-producing mesoscale convective systems

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Clark

Handout (12.8 MB)

529

Quantifying the Hydrometeorological Conditions of Watersheds Impacted by Flash Floods in the Northeast United States

530

An Examination of Soil Moisture Conditions in the Babocomari River Basin: The Flood Event of 23 July 2008

Robert J. Zamora, NOAA/ERL, Boulder, CO; and E. Clark, E. Rogers, M. B. Ek, and T. Lahmers

Poster Session

Global Flood Forecasting and Mapping Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Host: 27th Conference on Hydrology

Chairs: Bart Nijssen, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; Curt Barrett, Advisor to USAID-OFDA, Washington, DC

531

Flood Early Warning and Mitigation for The Zambezi River Basin

Sezin A. Tokar, United States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC; and C. Barrett and B. Stewart

532

A Call for Short Message Formats for Contemporary Dissemination, Alert and Notification

Kelly Sponberg, UCAR, Boulder, CO

533

A dynamic river network model for regional-scale simulation

Frank Liu, IBM, Austin, TX; and B. R. Hodges

534

Next Generation of a Real-time Global Flood Monitoring System Using Satellite-based Precipitation and a Land Surface Model

Huan Wu, ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. Adler, Y. Tian, and F. Policelli

Handout (1.3 MB)

535

Establishing a sustainable regional flood forecast system in Central America

Ana Deisy Lopez, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN), San Salvador, El Salvador; and C. Barrett and S. Tokar

536

Establishment and Operation of Lower Mekong River Basin Regional Flash Flood Guidance System - A Project Funded by Agency for International Development/ Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance

LAM HUNG Son, Mekong River Commission, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; and P. Katry

Handout (38.4 MB)

537

Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates for Flood Prediction in the Brahmaputra Basin

Mandira S. Shrestha, International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal, Nepal; and W. Palash, S. R. Bajracharya, and G. Artan

538

Modeling glacier and snow melt in the Himalayas: HIMALA BASINS

Molly Brown, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and D. Tarboton, A. Racoviteanu, S. Habib, M. Shrestha, and S. Bajracharya

Joint Poster Session

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Posters Part I

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA

539

Evaluating CEOP Model Performance in Semi-Arid Region of China

Weidong Guo, Insititute for Climate and Global Change Researching University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and X. Ling

540

Sensitivity of a Simulated Deep Convective Storm to WRF Microphysical Schemes and Horizontal Resolution

Annareli Morales, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. M. Villanueva-Birriel and H. Morrison

Handout (1013.2 kB)

541

Comparing nudging techniques with increasing horizontal resolution in regional climate models

Kevin Talgo, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and J. Bowden, N. Davis, A. Xiu, and A. Hanna

542

Cost-effective Dynamical Downscaling: An Illustration of Downscaling CESM with the WRF Model

Jared H. Bowden, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and S. Arunachalam

543

Microphysical Differences Resulting from Regional Climate Change in Simulated Deep Convective Storms

Cecille Villanueva-Birriel, Purdue University, West Lafayette, CO; and S. Lasher-Trapp and H. Morrison

544

Downscaling of monsoon onset using pseudo global warming method

Mikiko Fujita, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Hara, N. N. Ishizaki, H. G. Takahashi, and F. Kimura

545

Downscaling NOAA's Three-Month Precipitation Outlook

Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. C. Meyers, D. A. Unger, and A. Hollingshead

546

Effects of Agricultural Irrigation on Heat Waves in the Contiguous United States using WRF3.3-CLM4crop

Yaqiong Lu, University of California, Merced, CA; and J. Jin and L. M. Kueppers

547

High-resolution regional climate projections over South Asia

Rui Mei, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and D. Touma and M. Ashfaq

548

Lake Process Simulations with a Regional Climate Model

Jiming Jin, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and H. Gu, Y. Wu, and M. B. Ek

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Themed Joint Session 41

Tools for making use of climate predictions and earth systems analysis: GIS and Python Part II

Location: Room 12B (Austin Convention Center)

Chair: Johnny Wei-Bing Lin

4:00 PM

TJ41.1

The Use of GIS and Python Scripting for Processing and Mapping National and Regional Climate Data Simulations (invited)

J. Greg Dobson, University of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and J. D. Morgan, K. E. Kunkel, and L. E. Stevens

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

TJ41.2

The Google Earth Engine Python API (invited)

Tyler A. Erickson, Google Inc., Mountain View, CA

5:00 PM

Panel Discussion

Themed Joint Session 42

Flood Prediction, Analysis, Decision Support and Management Part I

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )

Chair: Gregory P. Shelton, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX

4:00 PM

TJ42.1

The development of a coupled surface water inundation modelling system

Heather Ashton, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and M. Best, J. Neal, and G. De Almeida

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

TJ42.2

Fully-coupled hydrometeorological prediction of catastrophic Mediterranean floods

David J. Gochis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Parodi, R. Rudari, S. Gabellani, and N. Rebora

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

TJ42.3

Improving Flood Forecast Capability by Coupling Radar-based Precipitation Estimation with Distributed Hydrological Model

Yangbo Chen, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China

4:45 PM

TJ42.4

A Flash Flood Response Tool for Hawaii

Bill Ward, NWS, Honolulu, HI

5:00 PM

TJ42.5

Towards a New System for Analysis of Environmental Disasters and Risk Assessment

Ana M. B. Nunes, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and N. F. Fernandes, G. B. França, M. N. O. Peixoto, I. S. Carvalho, and G. C. Silva Jr.

TJ42.6

Ensemble Flood Forecasting at the NWS Northwest River Forecast Center

5:15 PM

On the Changes of the Hydrological Balance of Caribbean Lakes – Modeling and Observations

Daniel Comarazamy, City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. Gonzalez, E. Glen, and R. Gonzalez

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Joint Session 4

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part II

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Om Tripathi, University of Reading, Reading,

4:00 PM

J4.1

Effective Use of Regional Models for Climate Prediction

Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas, Austin, TX

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J4.2

Inter-Annual Variability of African Easterly Waves in the NCAR Nested Regional Climate Model

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J4.3

Land use change and Sahel precipitation

Samson M. Hagos, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung, Y. Xue, A. A. Boone, and N. Neupane

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

J4.4

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Western North Pacific during the Last Decades Derived from a Regional Climate Model Simulation

Monika J. Barcikowska, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany; and F. Feser and H. von Storch

J4.5

Regional Climate Simulations for Australia using the weatherathome Citizen Science Experiment

5:00 PM

J4.5A

Dynamically Downscaled IPCC RCM Climate Projections for the Southwest U.S. and Their Applicability in Hydrologic Resource Projection

Hsin-I Chang, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. Castro, P. A. Troch, M. B. Switanek, T. Luong, and F. Dominguez

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

J4.6

A high-resolution, event-based modeling framework for understanding the impact of climate change on hydrometeorological extreme events

Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and V. L. Sankovich, R. J. Caldwell, M. A. Alexander, J. D. Scott, and J. Barsugli

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

J4.7

A modeling analysis of rainfall and water cycle by the cloud-resolving WRF model over western North Pacific

Wenhua Gao, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and C. H. Sui

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.9 MB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

93rd AMS Awards Banquet

Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)

Thursday, 10 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Joint Session 5

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part III

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

8:30 AM

J5.1

Projections of a Wetter Sahel in the 21st Century from Global and Regional Models

Edward K. Vizy, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

J5.2

Climate-relevant physics in the new Noah-MP Land Surface Model coupled with WRF

9:00 AM

J5.3

The arid/semi-arid region of East Asia: A hot spot of soil temperature-atmosphere coupling

Jingyong Zhang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

9:15 AM

J5.4

The role of negative buoyancy in surface-based convection and its representation in cumulus parameterization schemes

Manisha Ganeshan, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and R. Murtugudde

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (8.4 MB)

9:30 AM

J5.5

Improvement in the representation of warm season convective precipitation in complex terrain using a Modified Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme

Thang Luong, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. L. Castro, T. M. Nguyen, W. Cassell, and H. I. Chang

Recorded Presentation

Themed Joint Session 45

Flood Prediction, Analysis, Decision Support and Management Part II

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )

Chair: Dong-Jun Seo, University of Texas, Arlington, TX

CoChair: Gregory P. Shelton, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX

TJ45.1

An Overview of the Northeast River Forecast Center Implementation of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) and related activities supporting the New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) Operational Support Tool (OST)

8:45 AM

TJ45.2

Evaluation of Flash Flood Guidance in the US

Jonathan J. Gourley, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and R. Clark III, E. Clark, Z. L. Flamig, and Y. Hong

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

TJ45.3

Evaluation of the NWS Distributed Hydrologic Model over the Trinity River Basin in Texas

Arezoo Rafieei Nasab, University of Texas, Arlington, TX; and D. J. Seo, R. Corby, and P. W. McKee

9:15 AM

TJ45.4

How one community uses radar hydrology to cope with flooding: The City of Austin's Flood Early Warning System

Baxter E. Vieux, Vieux & Associates, Inc., Norman, OK; and S. Janek and J. E. Vieux

Recorded Presentation

TJ45.5

Short-range Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting of the Upper Trinity River – Evaluation via Hindcasting Experiments

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Joint Poster Session

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Posters Part II

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Om Tripathi, University of Reading, Reading,

549

The Climatic Effects of Deforestation in South and Southeast Asia

Rachindra Mawalagedara, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and R. J. Oglesby

550

Regional Climate Model Superensemble Simulations of Recent trends in Extreme events for the western US

Roberto J. Mera, Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC; and P. W. Mote

Handout (673.6 kB)

551

Seasonal Climatology Studies for Tropical Regions

Prabhat Kumar Thakur, Indian Instiute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; and R. Mittal, V. Saxena, T. George, L. A. Treinish, A. P. Praino, J. Cipriani, L. Dagar, A. G. Naim, H. Hassan, and S. A. Husain

Handout (436.4 kB)

552

Possible North Atlantic extratropical cyclone activity in a warmer climate

Lanli Guo, BIO, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and W. Perrie and Z. Long

553

The uneven decline in different snow measures due to human-induced climate warming

David W. Pierce, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA; and D. R. Cayan

554

New Daily and Monthly Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Projections

Levi D. Brekke, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO; and B. Thrasher, T. Pruitt, E. P. Maurer, C. Tebaldi, J. R. Arnold, and J. Long

Handout (1.5 MB)

555

The Use of Hydrological Similarity Concepts to Represent Sub-grid Variability in a Snowmelt Dominated Watershed

Andrew J. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Clark, A. Winstral, and D. Marks

556

Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

Hsin-I Chang, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. Castro and M. Leuthold

557

Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis

Ian Kraucunas, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. Clarke, J. Dirks, M. hejazi, K. A. Hibbard, M. Huang, A. Janetos, M. Kintner-Meyer, K. Kleese Van Dam, L. R. Leung, R. Moss, J. Rice, M. J. Scott, A. Thomson, T. West, P. Whitney, and Z. Yang

Handout (2.1 MB)

558

The North American Monsoon: Implications from WRF Modeling

Dorothea Ivanova, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ; and D. L. Mitchell

559

Atmospheric feedbacks of LULC change on hydrometeorological aridity in regions of complex terrain in South America

Xiaoming Sun, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and A. P. Barros

560

Dynamical Downscaling with Regional Integrated Environmental Modeling System (RIEMS) over East Asia

Deming Zhao, IAP/Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

561

Assessment of add-value of dynamical downscaling in Japan

Koji Dairaku, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan; and S. IIzuka, W. Sasaki, R. A. Pielke Sr., N. Tsunematsu, and J. Hirano

562

Approximated Equations of Urban Climate by Scale Analysis

Ali Gholizadeh Touchaei, Concordia University, Montreal, QC, Canada

Handout (159.4 kB)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Joint Session 6

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part IV

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )

Chair: Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA

11:00 AM

J6.1

Distributed Hydrological Modelling- and Stochastic Weather Generator-based Combined Estimation Technique for Future Flood Frequency Using Regional Climate Model Simulation

Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy and J. A. Szabó

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (654.3 kB)

11:15 AM

J6.2

Refining WRF Downscaling from 36-km to 12-km Resolution

O. Russell Bullock Jr., EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and M. S. Mallard, K. Alapaty, J. A. Herwehe, and T. L. Otte

11:30 AM

J6.3

Does increased model resolution over complex terrain improve precipitation for the right reasons? A North American Monsoon case study

Nicole J. Schiffer, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J6.4

Influence of Soil Moisture Initialization on Local Precipitation Patterns in the Western Ghats

Wendilyn J. Flynn, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO; and S. W. Nesbitt

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Lunch Break

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Coffee Break

Location: Levels 3 and 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President

Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

AMS 93rd Annual Meeting Adjourns

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Saturday, 5 January 2013

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 5 January 2013

Registration for Student Conference and Short Course

Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

Sunday, 6 January 2013

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 6 January 2013

Registration for Short Course and Conference for Early Career Professionals

Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013

Registration Open for Annual Meeting

Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013

WeatherFest

Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (Austin Convention Center)

Monday, 7 January 2013

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Registration Continues Through January 9

Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

8:30 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Plenary Session 13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today's Weather, Water, and Climate Forecasting and Projections

Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Spouses' Coffee

Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Coffee Break

Location: Ballroom D Foyer (Austin Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

From Predictions to Impact Based Decisions: Linking Water, Weather, Coastal and Climate

Location: Ballroom G (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Precipitation Processes and Observations for Atmospheric, Land Surface, and Hydrological Modeling Part I

Location: Ballroom E (Austin Convention Center)

The session will focus on precipitation measurement/estimation with a eye on historical, high resolution, gridded, hourly, daily and subdaily precipitation (re-)analysis. Recently, significant research interest has focused on multi-sensor (gauge-radar-satellite-model) fusion procedures for hi-resolution regional precipitation We are hoping to continue discussions on: (1) the current status of precipitation data set development; (2) the current and future requirements for the data sets; (3) how to produce precipitation products that serve the research community while benefiting operations and service activities; (4) demonstrate successful uses of these products; and (5) describe multi-sensor data fusion processes. Contacts: Pingping Xie (pingping.xie@noaa.gov), Thomas Adams (thomas.adams@noaa.gov).

TJ 3

Themed Joint Session Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Part I

Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)

This session invites papers that focus on scientific and operational, practical issues related to predicting and defining drought and reducing drought impacts. Topics of interest include the formulation and use of drought indices and definitions, and the characterization of drought impacts across the diverse climates of North America and the world. In particular, we welcome presentations spanning a range from drought analysis and prediction to management activities for high-impact drought events, on statewide to continental scales, and including applications such as drought early warning systems. Policy responses for managing drought are also of interest. Contact: Christa Peters-Lidard (christa.d.peters-lidard@nasa.gov)

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Themed Joint Poster Session Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Poster Session Precipitation Processes and Observations for Atmospheric, Land Surface, and Hydrological Modeling Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Precipitation Processes and Observations for Atmospheric, Land Surface, and Hydrological Modeling Part II

Location: Ballroom E (Austin Convention Center)

TJ 7

Themed Joint Session Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Part II

Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Reception and Exhibits Opening

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Tuesday, 8 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

TJ 13

Themed Joint Session Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Part III

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

TJ 14

Themed Joint Session Water Resources Applications of Hydrometeorological Analyses and Predictions Part I

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

We seek contributions from the research, operational and stakeholder or user communities on recent advances in science and practice of weather and climate analysis and prediction, hydrologic forecasting, and uncertainty-based approaches to support applications in water and watershed management. Water management concerns may include single or multi-sectoral efforts toward improving decisions regarding energy, flood or drought mitigation, agriculture, navigation and recreation, transboundary efforts or initiatives, and other resources management challenges. We welcome papers focusing on work across the spectrum of time (hourly to seasonal and interannual) and space scales (local to global), and presentations that highlight new theory, methods or findings from case studies. Contacts: Larry Brazil (Larry.Brazil@riverside.com), Andy Wood (Andy.Wood@noaa.gov)

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Spouses' Coffee

Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Poster Session Advances in Estimating Evaporation, Evaporative Demand, and Associated Applications Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Advances in the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and atmospheric evaporative demand (Eo) are made across a broad range of scales and techniques, from in-situ observations to remote sensing and modeling. Specific topics for this session might include: • estimating ET from various perspectives: remote sensing platforms, ground-based point observations and parameterizations, plant-based experimentation, and water budgets; operational ET estimation; land surface-atmosphere feedbacks; future remote sensing missions and needs for ET; Eo as an input to operational LSMs to derive ET, schedule crop irrigation, and as a metric of hydroclimatic trends and variability. Contact(s): Mike Hobbins (Mike.Hobbins@noaa.gov) and Martha Anderson (Martha.Anderson@ars.usda.gov)

Poster Session Benchmarking, identification, and verification in land surface modeling and data assimilation Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

We invite contributions describing the advances in model benchmarking, evaluation and verification for land surface model and data assimilation simulations and systems including: (1) Challenges and issues of land surface model benchmarking, availability and accuracy of observational datasets, (2) The use of novel, standardized model benchmarking, identification and verification metrics and tools, (3) The use of techniques and metrics beyond the traditional deterministic approaches (such as ensemble diagnostics, probabilistic verification measures), (4) The use of model identification measures to differentiate the performance of different models, (4) multi-model and ensemble diagnostics to characterize predictive uncertainties. In particular, we seek contributions that lead towards the definition and refinement of standardized measures of model performance for the land surface community.

Themed Joint Poster Session Water Resources Applications of Hydrometeorological Analyses and Predictions Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Advances in Estimating Evaporation, Evaporative Demand, and Associated Applications Part I

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Precipitation Processes and Observations for Atmospheric, Land Surface, and Hydrological Modeling Part III

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

TJ 20

Themed Joint Session Decision Making using Advanced Technology: Risk-based Predictions and Risk-informed Communication for the Water Information Customer

Location: Room 12A (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

J 1

Joint Session Advances in Land Data Assimilation Part I

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

This session highlights advances in development and applications of land data assimilation systems (LDAS), which merge ground- or satellite-based land surface observations with estimates from coupled or “off-line” land surface models, and can be used to initialize weather and seasonal climate forecasts, monitor and predict extreme events, provide improved background information for atmospheric data assimilation, improve process understanding, and support model development. Contributions may include studies that evaluate or improve land DA methods, assess LDAS impact on state estimates, or use LDAS for the above-mentioned applications. Contributions may address the simultaneous assimilation of multiple observation types, and use of current and planned hydrology satellite missions (e.g. SMOS, SMAP and SWOT). Contact(s): Mike Ek (Michael.Ek@noaa.gov), Youlong Xia (Youlong.Xia@noaa.gov), Rolf Reichle (Rolf.Reichle@nasa.gov), and Susan Steele-Dunne (s.c.steele-dunne@tudelft.nl)

TJ 24

Themed Joint Session Water Resources Applications of Hydrometeorological Analyses and Predictions Part II

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President

Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Advances in Estimating Evaporation, Evaporative Demand, and Associated Applications Part II

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

Benchmarking, Identification, and Verification in Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Duce Symposium Banquet

Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

Wednesday, 9 January 2013

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

J 2

Joint Session Advances in Land Data Assimilation Part II

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

TJ 32

Themed Joint Session The Verification of Hydrometeorological Predictions: Theory, Methods and Case Studies

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Spouses' Coffee

Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President

Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

J 3

Joint Session Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part I

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

While climate variability and change are largely governed by global phenomena adaptation to climate phenomena is primarily a regional and local problem. Regional climate models (RCMs) play an important role in downscaling global climate model information to the regional and local scale - at which local stakeholders and decision makers operate. In this session, we solicit talks related to the development and application of RCMs. We welcome talks focusing on diagnosis and evaluation of RCMs with in situ and remote sensing observations, improved physical parameterizations, and the relationship between large-scale climate variability and change with local phenomena. Application of RCMs to hydrological, ecological, agricultural and water resources management problems, including the prediction of hydrologic extremes, are also welcome. Contact(s): Francina Dominguez (francina@hwr.arizona.edu), Leung, Lai-Yung (Ruby) (Ruby.Leung@pnnl.gov), Om Tripathi (tripathi@atmo.arizona.edu), and Hsin-I Chang (hchang@atmo.arizona.edu)

Global Flood Forecasting and Mapping

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

Satellite measurements combined with continued improvement in the resolution of operational global models have enabled the development of supranational, global and regional-scale flood monitoring and forecasting systems. This session invites presentations that discuss the development, implementation and application of such large-scale systems and related monitoring, nowcasting, flash-flood scale forecasting, high-resolution mapping and impact assessment studies. Interdisciplinary projects that prepare for an improved humanitarian response to flood events are of particular interest. Contact(s): Bart Nijssen Nijssen@uw.edu, Ayse Sezin Tokar stokar@usaid.gov

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

L 1

Lecture Robert E. Horton Lecture

Location: Room 4ABC (Austin Convention Center)

TJ 38

Themed Joint Session Tools for making use of climate predictions and earth systems analysis: GIS and Python Part I

Location: Room 12B (Austin Convention Center)

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Joint Poster Session Advances in Land Data Assimilation Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Themed Joint Poster Session Flood Prediction, Analysis, Decision Support and Management Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

his session will be oriented toward prediction and decision support, highlighting cutting-edge efforts to advance short to medium range prediction systems in support of flood prevention operations and management. A broader slate of flood related topics are also of interest, including the characterization of observed flood events, estimation of flood risk, hydrologic and geomorphologic changes associated with floods, flood analysis and simulation, and flood related physical processes and phenomenon such as rain on snow, snowmelt, atmospheric rivers and tropical connections. The session also invites contributions related to the management of floods, such as emergency response activities, including case study assessments of recent, high-impact events.. Contact(s) DJ Seo (djseo@uta.edu), Andy Wood (Andy.Wood@noaa.gov),

Poster Session Global Flood Forecasting and Mapping Posters

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Joint Poster Session Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Posters Part I

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

TJ 41

Themed Joint Session Tools for making use of climate predictions and earth systems analysis: GIS and Python Part II

Location: Room 12B (Austin Convention Center)

TJ 42

Themed Joint Session Flood Prediction, Analysis, Decision Support and Management Part I

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

J 4

Joint Session Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part II

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

93rd AMS Awards Banquet

Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)

Thursday, 10 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

J 5

Joint Session Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part III

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

TJ 45

Themed Joint Session Flood Prediction, Analysis, Decision Support and Management Part II

Location: Room 10A (Austin Convention Center)

This session will be oriented toward prediction and decision support, highlighting cutting-edge efforts to advance short to medium range prediction systems in support of flood prevention operations and management. A broader slate of flood related topics are also of interest, including the characterization of observed flood events, estimation of flood risk, hydrologic and geomorphologic changes associated with floods, flood analysis and simulation, and flood related physical processes and phenomenon such as rain on snow, snowmelt, atmospheric rivers and tropical connections. The session also invites contributions related to the management of floods, such as emergency response activities, including case study assessments of recent, high-impact events.. Contact(s) DJ Seo (djseo@uta.edu), Greg Shelton (Greg.Shelton@noaa.gov)

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Joint Poster Session Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Posters Part II

Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

J 6

Joint Session Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part IV

Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Lunch Break

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Coffee Break

Location: Levels 3 and 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President

Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

AMS 93rd Annual Meeting Adjourns

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