Understanding the hydrological affects of Tropical Cyclones over the Carolinas from an observational and modeling based perspective

The Carolinas are vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) activity both along the coast and over the interior. These storm systems bring intense precipitation and strong winds triggering a variety of natural hazards (storm surge, flooding, landslides). Given the spatial and temporal scale of these systems, environmental and societal impact studies require a suite of observations from ground base station to satellite data. However, TC assessment can be limited by scarcity of station coverage, sensor limitations, and rainfall retrieval uncertainties from radar and satellites. Numerical methods can be a valuable tool used in TC investigations at regional and local scales in addition to bridging the gap between observations.

The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of TCs across the Carolinas using both observational and modeling technologies, and explore the usefulness of numerical models in data spare regions. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) sub-model Advanced Research Hurricane-WRF (AHW) will be used to model TCs from the following categories: near-miss (non-landfalling TC near the coast), direct hit (landfall over the Carolinas), and indirect hit (TC and remnants travelling inland). In addition, a storm-surge model based on WRF simulations of direct hit and near-miss storms will be used to include TC related coastal flooding. It is anticipated that numerical methods coupled with observational data will improve hydrological assessments of TC impacts particularly in data spare regions.