INVITED: Drought and Water Supply in the Context of Foreign Policy

Assessment of water supply in its historical context shapes foreign policy, for example, through plans to build capacity in foreign nations. The Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory has produced snow cover assessments, derived from remote sensing, for major watersheds across south-central and southwestern Asia on an operational basis. The product places a contemporary assessment of snow conditions within a historical context, which the operational community uses to develop analogies based on past events and their consequences. These inform narratives used in a diverse planning and decision-making spectrum. The spectrum includes the decision whether to incur further costs in analysis, such as evaluation of forecast ensembles for example, as well as operational planning and decision support. This presentation reviews efforts and products delivered to date, identifies gaps in the state of knowledge and lays out one framework to improve the state of practice using this approach.