Towards a New System for Analysis of Environmental Disasters and Risk Assessment

In response to catastrophic occurrences frequently observed in densely populated regions in Brazil, the researchers of the three interdisciplinary areas of the Institute of Geosciences, at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, have joined efforts to plan an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk that are driven by extreme meteorological events. This integrated information and analysis system primarily consists of a suite of atmospheric and land-surface models, including adaptive models, applied to severe weather studies together with landslide modeling.

All proposed modeling experiments, as well as essential datasets, would be used in the refinement of the modeling systems, providing better predictions and projections to model areas susceptible to landslides. The landslide modeling will apply physically based numerical models that include advanced hydrology and slope stability, among other combinations. Predictions of areas susceptible to mass movements will be made by combining a prediction model of mass movements (e.g., SHALSTAB and TRIGRS models for shallow landslides) with a propagation model for debris flow (model FLO-2D). This combined modeling effort will also contribute to the understanding of regional climate variability and change; and will support better mitigation and adaptation decisions at local scales.

Preliminary results obtained from the independent modeling systems are encouraging, and can be proven useful to address this multi-scale problem when combined in a same framework.