4B.1 NOAA's Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A Progress Report

Tuesday, 8 January 2013: 8:30 AM
Room 9C (Austin Convention Center)
Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

In 2005 NOAA began a multi-year experiment called the Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX). As the name states, the ultimate aim of IFEX is to improve the prediction of TC intensity. There are three primary approaches pursued by IFEX to improve TC intensity predictions. They are to 1) collect observations that span the TC life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; 2) develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. An overview of the work that has occurred in the intervening years following these approaches is provided here, as is a summary of the data collected during the 2010 season, a year which saw a very successful partnering with the NASA GRIP and NSF PREDICT field campaigns.
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