In this presentation we will review the performance of 2012 HRRR forecasts with an emphasis on warm-season convection in real-time and retrospective runs. We will document the reduction in moist bias of soil moisture, dewpoints, precipitation and convective initiation, particularly in the first few forecast hours of each model cycle, and show improved development and maintenance of mesoscale convective systems. We will also present an improvement in the HRRR echo top height forecasts that was applied in July 2012.
We will also preview the development of the 2013 HRRR forecast system with a focus on four areas including (1) establishment of data assimilation (including radar observations) at the 3-km scale to further reduce convective-scale spin-up in the first few forecast hours, (2) enhancement in model dynamics and physics including shallow convective parameterization to improve the timing of convective initiation in weakly-forced weather regimes, (3) reduction of latency in HRRR model forecast production through an accelerated 3-km analysis and more efficient post-processing, and (4) improved reliability and availability of HRRR forecasts through redundant high performance computer systems hosted in Boulder, CO and Fairmont, WV. We will also update progress on other anticipated changes in the cloud analysis and ensemble data assimilation in an hourly update cycle that will improve year-round performance of the HRRR. Finally, we will discuss the development of time-lagged ensemble convective probabilities produced from HRRR runs.