Future Convective Environments in the Southeast U.S

This study examines trends in atmospheric environments conducive to the development of severe convection in the Southeast U.S., as simulated by a regional model forced with output from a global climate model. Meteorological variables necessary for severe convection from current (1981–1995) and future (2041–2055) epochs were compared. Results indicate that for the spring months, domain averaged severe weather environments increase in both months, while September showed a decreasing trend. The trend in significant severe weather environments was not as clear through domain averages due to the rarity of the events, but simulations show a significant increase in severe (and significant severe weather) potential in the Tennessee Valley. For all periods of all measures of severe weather potential, it is important to examine the spatio-temporal distribution of these categories to understand how severe weather environments may or may not change in the coming century.