25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Program Chairs: Hai Lin , EC ; Aiguo Dai , NCAR

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 5 January 2013

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 5 January 2013


Registration for Student Conference and Short Course
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

Sunday, 6 January 2013

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


Registration for Short Course and Conference for Early Career Professionals
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2013


WeatherFest
Location: Exhibit Hall 1 (Austin Convention Center)

Monday, 7 January 2013

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Registration Continues Through January 9
Location: 4th Street Atrium (Austin Convention Center)

8:30 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Plenary Session
13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today's Weather, Water, and Climate Forecasting and Projections
Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Presidential Forum: Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today; the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 17th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; the First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Eighth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research; the 16th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the First Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Sixth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Special Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts; the 10th Conference on Space Weather; the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction; the Sixth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 11th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the Robert A. Duce Symposium; the Third Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Fourth Conference on Environment and Health )
  8:30 AM
Opening Remarks (by AMS President Dr. Louis Uccellini and Co-Chairs Troy Kimmel/Ken Carey will introduce Texas and Local Representatives)
  8:35 AM
Warm Welcome to Austin!

  8:45 AM
Introduction of Guest Speakers (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

  8:50 AM
"Predicting Weather and Climate: Scientific Progress and Future Opportunities" Dr. Alan Thorpe, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
  9:10 AM
"River/Rainfall Forecast Fusion Cells" Major General Michael Walsh, US Army Corps of Engineers
  9:30 AM
"Cloudy with the Chance of Insight" Dr. Tony Hey, Microsoft Research
  9:50 AM
"Where Citizens are Looking" Dr. Nigel Snoad, Google Crisis Response
  10:10 AM
Audience Question and Answer (moderated by Dr. William (Bill) Hooke)
  10:25 AM
Closing Remarks (by Dr. Louis Uccellini)

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Spouses' Coffee
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Ballroom D Foyer (Austin Convention Center)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 1
Application of AI to the Climate System
Location: Room 18A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
CoChair: Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
  11:00 AM
TJ1.1
Statistical Predictive Models for Seasonal Rainfall Anomalies over Sahel
Hamada S. Badr, Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik and S. D. Guikema
  11:15 AM
TJ1.2
Verifying the time-invariance assumption of statistically downscaled precipitation datasets for future climate
Carlos Felipe Gaitan, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh and A. J. Cannon
  11:45 AM
TJ1.4
Simulation Carbon Dioxide Flux over Two Maize Canopies (Irrigated and Rain-fed) Using Artificial Neural Networks
Babak Safa, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and T. J. Arkebauer, A. Suyker, S. Irmak, and Q. Zhu

Recording files available
Session 1A
Decadal Variability and Predictability
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Bin Yu, EC, Toronto, ON
  11:00 AM
1A.1
Pacific and Atlantic Decadal Variability Reflected by the Winter Temperature in Taiwan During the Period 1911-2010
Mong-Ming Lu, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. C. Lin, Y. M. Cho, and N. E. Huang

  11:15 AM
1A.2
Coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation experiments with a low-order climate model
Robert Tardif, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. Snyder and G. J. Hakim
  11:30 AM
1A.3
An Empirical Benchmark for Decadal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature Anomalies
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO
Recording files available
Session 1B
Extreme Weather and Climate Change Part I
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Adam H. Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC
  11:00 AM
1B.1
Is Global Warming significantly affecting atmospheric circulation extremes?
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO ; and G. P. Compo, C. Penland, and C. McColl

  11:15 AM
1B.2
Changes in the Character of Heavy Precipitation Events with Warming
Dr. Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC
  11:30 AM
1B.3
Monitoring changes in U.S. Weather and Climate Extremes
Michael F. Squires, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. R. Karl and R. W. Katz
  11:45 AM
1B.4
A Nonstationary Framework for Studying Weather/Climate Extremes
Zhaohua Wu, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

5
From Predictions to Impact Based Decisions: Linking Water, Weather, Coastal and Climate
Location: Ballroom G (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications; the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction; and the First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise )
Moderator: Paul Sandifer, Chief Science Advisor, NOAA's National Ocean Service, Charleston, SC
Panelists: James Porter, Chief, Water System Operations, Bureau of Water Supply, NYC Department of Environmental Protection, Grahamsville, NY; Robert Hartman, NOAA/NWS, Sacramento, CA; John C. Schaake, Consulting Hydrologist, Annapolis, MD
  11:00 AM
John Schaake Presentation

  11:15 AM
NYC Water Supply by Jim Porter

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 2A
Model enhancements for improving predictions
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: V. Ramaswamy, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
  1:45 PM
2A.2
A new flexible hydrological framework for land surface modeling in regional and global climate studies
Pieter Hazenberg, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and P. Broxton, D. Gochis, G. Y. Niu, J. Pelletier, P. Troch, and X. Zeng
  2:15 PM
2A.4
Rain-induced Dissipation in Hurricanes
Tapan Sabuwala, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Onna-son, Okinawa, Japan; and G. Gioia and P. Chakraborty
Recording files available
Session 2B
Extreme Weather and Climate Change Part II
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO
  1:30 PM
2B.1
Associating U.S. monthly tornado activity with environmental parameters
Michael K. Tippett, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and A. H. Sobel and S. J. Camargo
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 3
Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Part I
Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Chair: Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
Cochairs: John B. Eylander, US Army Corp of Engineers, Hanover, NH; Siegfried Schubert, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD
  1:30 PM
TJ3.1
  1:45 PM
TJ3.2
INVITED: Assessment of the National Multi-Model Ensemble System for the Prediction of Drought Over the NIDIS Test-beds
Eric F. Wood, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. K. Roundy and X. Yuan

  2:00 PM
TJ3.3A
The Impact of Soil Moisture and Snow Assimilation on NLDAS Drought Metrics
Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. M. Mocko, S. V. Kumar, Y. Tian, Y. Xia, and M. B. Ek

  2:15 PM
TJ3.4

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Themed Joint Poster Session
Application of AI to the Climate System: Poster session
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
CoChair: Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
 
92
Modeling Atmospheric Temperature Profiles in the Arctic Regions
Young P. Yee, Mkey Technologies, Las Cruces, NM; and K. Y. Yee

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

 
93
Synoptic-Scale Weather Forcing of Surface Melt on West Antarctic Ice Shelves from 1987-2002
Chris Karmosky, Univ. of Tennessee, Martin, TN; and D. B. Reusch and D. J. Lampkin

 
95
Artificial Neural Network applied to classification of lightning discharge images
Diego Matos Guedes, Centro Universitário da FEI, Sao Bernardo do Campo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; and R. B. B. Gin and R. A. C. Bianchi


Themed Joint Poster Session
Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Posters
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Cochairs: Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; John B. Eylander, US Army Corp of Engineers, Hanover, NH; Siegfried D. Schubert, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD
 
23
The Global Drought Information System—A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications
Michael J. Brewer, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Heim

 
24
Reformulation of the Drought Code in the Canadian Fire Weather Index System Implemented in New Zealand
Yang Yang, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; and M. Uddstrom

 
Poster 25 has been moved. New Paper number TJ3.3A

 
26
 
28
HydroXtreme-MaP: A Global Real-time Hydrological Modeling System for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction
Xianwu Xue, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Hong, J. J. Gourley, R. F. Adler, and Y. Zhang

 
30
Remote Sensing Detection of Droughts and Efficient Water Resource Allocation in Korea
Jihoon Jung, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and B. J. Kim and S. H. Ahn

 
32
Development of a Remote-Sensing Based Framework for Mapping Drought over North America
Christopher Hain, University of Maryland, Camp Springs, MD; and M. C. Anderson, X. Zhan, M. D. Svoboda, B. Wardlow, and I. E. Mladenova

 
33
The Utility of the Real-Time NASA Land Information System Data for Drought Monitoring Applications
Kristopher D. White, NOAA/NWS, Huntsville, AL, AL; and J. L. Case
Manuscript (4.3 MB)

Poster PDF (2.6 MB)

 
34
Factors affecting land surface model spin-up behavior in the high resolution North American Land Assimilation System (NLDAS)
Jiarui Dong, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Ek, B. Cosgrove, Y. Xia, and J. Meng

 
35
An integrative analysis of drought in the Southeastern United States
Jonghun Kam, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. Sheffield and E. F. Wood

 
36
Uncertainties, Relationships, and Optimal Blends of Ensemble-Mean NLDAS Drought Indices
Youlong Xia, NOAA/NCEP, College Park, MD; and M. B. Ek, D. M. Mocko, C. Peters-Lidard, J. Sheffield, J. Dong, and E. F. Wood

 
37
Assessing Future Changes of Extreme Surface Temperatures over the southern United States
Ze Yang, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and R. Fu and N. Fernando


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Poster Session
Poster Session I
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Hai Lin, EC, Dorval, QC
 
96
The long-term changes of tropospheric lapse rate over China and Its Relations to Surface Warming
Tianbao Zhao Sr., Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

 
97
A Synoptic Climatology of Southern Plains Winter Storms
Esther D. White, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie and P. J. Lamb
Manuscript (4.6 MB)

Poster PDF (15.6 MB)

 
98
 
99
Dynamical mechanism of meteorological variables in a complicated region
Kyungsik Kim, Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea

 
Poster 101 will now present as TJ33.2A

 
102
 
104
Regional Variability of Seasonal Climate Change in NARCCAP
Seth A. McGinnis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. O. Mearns and L. McDaniel

Poster PDF (18.1 MB)

 
105
Uncertainty in Future Scenarios of N2O Emission Simulations in Agro-ecosystems in Kansas
Miguel Arango, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS; and C. W. Rice and A. Anandhi

 
106
The Effect of Weighting on the NARCCAP Ensemble Mean
Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Thompson and L. O. Mearns

Poster PDF (6.3 MB)

 
107
 
108
Assessing regional behavior of extreme value statistics from NARCCAP
David B. Mechem, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and N. A. Brunsell

 
109
Long-term Trends and Variability of Rainfall Extremes in the Philippines
Marcelino Quilates Villafuerte II, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji-shi, Tokyo, Japan; and J. Matsumoto, I. Akasaka, and H. Kubota

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

 
110
Precipitation Trends 1900-2005 Over the Globe from Reconstruction and Coupled Model Simulations
Li Ren, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and P. A. Arkin, T. Smith, and S. Shen

 
111
Vulnerability and Resilience of Urban Water Systems under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios
Dan O. Sauceda, DRI, Reno, NV; and J. Mejia and J. Huntington

 
114
Climatological propagation of atmospheric phenomena
Eunho Choi, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; and G. H. Lim

 
115
Changes in Air-Freezing Index and frost depth between two climate normals periods
Rocky G. Bilotta, ERT and NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and E. Shepherd and J. E. Bell

 
116
Distinguishing Tropical and Extratropical Dynamical Regimes Based on Rossby Number Statistics
Steven J. Brey, University of Washington, Woodinville, WA; and N. A. Davis and T. Birner


Poster Session
Poster Session II
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Hai Lin, EC, Dorval, QC
 
125
Addressing Issues Related to Animal Agriculture and Climate Change through Extension Programming
Pamela N. Knox, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and M. Risse, G. Hawkins, E. Whitefield, D. Smith, C. Powers, D. Schmidt, and J. Pronto

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

 
126
Climatic impacts of a stochastic parameterization of air–sea fluxes
Paul D. Williams, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

 
127
Evidence of Long Period Modulations in Spectral Aerosol Optical Depths Over Central Himalayas
Devulapalli Venkata Phanikumar, ARIES, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India; and N. K. Kondapalli, K. K. Shukla, M. V. Ratnam, and M. Naja

 
128
 
129
Analysis of Aridity Trend over Mid-latitude Semi-arid Region Using GLDAS Data
Xiaodan Guan, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China; and J. Huang and S. Cheng

 
130
Past and Future Heat Waves in Central/Eastern Europe - Case Study for Hungary Using PRECIS Simulations
Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, E. B. Bartha, and I. Pieczka
Manuscript (2.9 MB)

Poster PDF (733.6 kB)

 
132
'Evaluation of Precipitation Diurnal Variability by TRMM: Case of Pakistan's 2010 Intense Monsoon'
Hannah K. Huelsing, NWC, Norman, OK; and S. Khan, Y. Hong, and H. Vergara

 
133
Sensitivity of Lake-Effect Snowfall to Lake Ice Cover and Temperature in the Great Lakes Region
David M. Wright, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt and A. L. Steiner

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

 
134
New aspects on the interdecadal variability of East Asian winter monsoon
Kyung-Ja Ha, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; and J. G. Jhun and S. S. Lee

 
135
A Regional Intercomparison of Rainfall and Wind Speed Extremes
Michael C. Kruk, ERT, Inc., Asheville, NC; and J. Marra

 
136
Extreme Temperature Regimes in the United States: Long-term Trends and Low Frequency Mode Modulation in Observations and CMIP5 Models
Rebecca Westby, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and Y. Y. Lee and R. X. Black

 
137
Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Florida's Future Hurricane Event Risk
Michelle Ruiz, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

 
139
Mechanisms and Sources of Predictability of the North Pacific Warming in the Late 1980s and Early 1990s
Jason R. Webster, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and B. Dong, R. Sutton, and D. M. Smith

Poster PDF (5.3 MB)

 
140
Projected Changes in Heavy Precipitation over North America in CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations
Anthony M. DeAngelis, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and A. J. Broccoli

Poster PDF (390.8 kB)

 
141
Extreme precipitation Indices Derived from the NOAA CPC Unified Precipitation Data: Implications for Decision-Making
Kremena Darmenova, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and D. Apling and G. Higgins

 
142
Contemporary meteorological observations facilitate interpretation of a new multi-century long ice core from the Antarctic Peninsula
Daniel R. Miller, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and E. Mosley-Thompson and B. P. Goodwin

 
143
 
144
Decadal Changes in Cold Surge Characteristics over Northeast Asia and Their relation with the Arctic Oscillation for the Past Three Decades (1979–2011)
Sung-Ho Woo, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan, Gyeonggi, South Korea; and B. M. Kim, J. H. Jeong, S. J. Kim, and G. H. Lim

 
145
Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Climate Products from GPS Radio Occultation Data
Chi O. Ao, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and O. P. Verkhoglyadova, S. S. Leroy, and A. J. Mannucci

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 3A
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO
  4:15 PM
3A.2
Future Convective Environments in the Southeast U.S
Victor Gensini, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and C. Ramseyer and T. Mote
  4:30 PM
3A.3
Spatial Extreme Value Analysis for Large-Scale Severe Weather Indicators
Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and C. M. Ammann
  4:45 PM
3A.4
Future North American Temperature Extremes as Simulated by a Hierarchy of Global and Regional Climate Models
Christopher G. Fletcher, Univ. of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada; and A. T. Saunders
  5:00 PM
3A.5
NARCCAP Model Validation for the Southeast United States
Erik D. Kabela, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC; and G. Carbone
  5:15 PM
3A.6
Evaluation of NARCCAP Simulations against Site Observations within a Lake Modified Zone
. Perdinan, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and J. A. Winkler, S. Zhong, Z. Abraham, P. N. Tan, and M. Liszewska
Recording files available
Session 3B
Tropical Cyclones and Climate
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, Reading, Berks.
  4:00 PM
3B.1
  4:15 PM
3B.2
Citizen Scientists and Tropical Cyclone Activity
Kenneth Knapp, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. C. Hennon, C. J. Schreck III, and S. E. Stevens
  4:30 PM
3B.3
  5:15 PM
3B.6
Global View of the Origin of Tropical Disturbances Revisited
Brian Tang, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 7
Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Part II
Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Cochairs: Christa D. Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; John B. Eylander, US Army Corp of Engineers, Hanover, NH; Siegfried D. Schubert, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD
  4:00 PM
TJ7.1
Drought depiction, prediction and application: Implications for GDIS
Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI/Columbia University), Palisades, NY; and K. Mo and A. G. Barnston
  4:15 PM
TJ7.2
A Modeling Study of the On-Going Drought and Heat Wave Over the United States
Siegfried Schubert, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Wang, R. D. Koster, and M. Suarez
  4:30 PM
TJ7.3
CWRF Application for U.S. Drought Forecasts
Xin-Zhong Liang, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. Chen and S. Su
  4:45 PM
TJ7.4
  5:00 PM
TJ7.5
East African Drought Prediction and Humanitarian Responses in 2012
Chris C. Funk, USGS EROS, Santa Barbara, CA; and G. Husak, J. Michaelsen, A. Hoell, and J. Verdin
  5:15 PM
TJ7.6
Evaluation of a Remotely Sensed Evaporative Stress Index for Monitoring Patterns of Anomalous Water Use
Martha C. Anderson, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, MD; and C. Hain, J. A. Otkin, and X. Zhan
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 10
Medium-range, Sub-seasonal and Seasonal-scale Forecast Techniques and Modeling for Energy Demand Part I
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation )
Cochairs: Travis Hartman, MDA Information Systems, Inc (EarthSat Wx), Gaithersburg, MD; Stephen Bennett, EarthRisk Technologies, San Diego, CA; Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR, Boulder, CO
  4:30 PM
TJ10.3
  4:45 PM
TJ10.4
A seamless system for medium range, subseasonal and seasonal probabalistic forecasts of energy demand
Judith A. Curry, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. Belanger, M. Jelinek, V. Toma, and P. Webster

  5:00 PM
TJ10.5
Medium-Range Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting for Texas
Kristofer Y. Shrestha, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry, J. Belanger, J. Mittelman, J. Freedman, J. Zack, and P. Beaucage

  5:15 PM
TJ10.6
Subseasonal predictability of regional wind power generation
Jake Mittelman, Georgia Institute of Techonology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry, K. Shrestha, and J. Belanger

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


Reception and Exhibits Opening
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Tuesday, 8 January 2013

8:15 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Joint Session 2
Climate Impact to Health, Food Security and Air Quality
Location: Room 6B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Conference on Environment and Health; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Moderator: Michelle D. Hawkins, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
  8:15 AM
J2.1
Pollen exposure and respiratory illness in a changing climate
Shubhayu Saha, CDC, Atlanta, GA; and A. Manangan and G. Luber

  8:30 AM
J2.2
The vector mosquito Aedes aegypti at the margins: sensitivity of a coupled natural and human system to climate change
Andrew J. Monaghan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. F. Steinhoff, M. H. Hayden, L. Delle Monache, L. M. Eisen, S. Lozano-Fuentes, E. Zielinski-Gutierrez, and C. Welsh-Rodriguez
  8:45 AM
J2.3
  9:00 AM
J2.4
Predicting the Effects of Climate and Weather on the Occurrence of West Nile Virus in Nortern Cook County IL
Nancy E. Westcott, Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL; and R. L. Lampman and E. J. Muturi
  9:15 AM
J2.5
  9:30 AM
J2.6

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 4
Interactions among different climate components
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Joel R. Norris, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA
  8:30 AM
4.1
Capturing the Atlantic cold tongue and coastal upwelling in a coupled atmosphere/ocean regional model
Edward Vizy, Department of Geological Sciences, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

  8:45 AM
4.2A
A Review of Global Terrestrial Evapotranspiration: Observation, Modeling, Climatology, and Climatic Variability
Kaicun Wang, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, Beijing, China; and R. E. Dickinson
  9:00 AM
4.3
Diagnostics of the Joint Behavior of US Summer Heat Waves and Drought: How Extreme was 2012?
Bradfield Lyon, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI/Columbia University), Palisades, NY; and A. G. Barnston
  9:30 AM
4.5
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 13
Drought Prediction and Applications from a Hydrological Science Perspective Part III
Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Chair: John B. Eylander, US Army Corp of Engineers, Hanover, NH
  8:30 AM
TJ13.1
  8:45 AM
TJ13.2
Using a standardized GRACE dataset to investigate regional-scale drought severity
Alys Thomas, University of California, Irvine, CA; and J. S. Famiglietti
  9:00 AM
TJ13.3
Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Drought Persistence in the Southeastern United States
Christopher F. Labosier, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and T. W. Ford
  9:30 AM
TJ13.5
Land-atmosphere coupling and seasonal forecast skill over the Great Plains and the Southeast United States
Joshua K. Roundy, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and C. R. Ferguson and E. F. Wood
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 15
Determining the Uncertainty of Climate Predictions and Projections and Best Practices for Users of Climate Information
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )
Chair: Dan Collins, NOAA/CPC, Camp Springs, MD
  8:30 AM
TJ15.1
Uncertainties in Regional Simulations of the U.S. Climate in the 20th and 21st Centuries
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC; and L. E. Stevens and J. G. Dobson
  8:45 AM
TJ15.2
Determining Land-Atmosphere Coupling Trends in a Changing Climate from Multi-Model Ensembles
Paul A. Dirmeyer, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and Y. Jin, B. Singh, and X. Yan
  9:15 AM
TJ15.4
Examining the stationarity assumption in statistical downscaling of climate projections: Is past performance an indication of future results?
Keith W. Dixon, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and K. Hayhoe, J. Lanzante, A. M. K. Stoner, and A. Radhakrishnan
  9:30 AM
TJ15.5
Incorporating MJO and ENSO information into probabilistic temperature forecasts over North America
Nat Johnson, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and D. Collins, S. B. Feldstein, M. L'Heureux, and E. E. Riddle

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Spouses' Coffee
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Themed Joint Poster Session
Determining the Uncertainty of Climate Predictions and Projections and Best Practices for Users of Climate Information
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction )
Chair: Dan Collins, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD
 
119
Uncertainty in the CMIP5 Projections over South Asia
Moetasim Ashfaq, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and D. Rastogi and D. Touma

 
120
Quantification of Model Parameterization Uncertainty in the NASA GEOS GCM
Derek J. Posselt, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and B. Fryxell

 
122
How does the drought of 2012 compare to earlier droughts in Kansas, USA?
Aavudai Anandhi, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS; and M. Knapp, S. L. Huchinson, and C. W. Rice

 
124
A Combined Dynamical/Statistical Technique for Regionalizing an Ensemble of Climate Change Signals
Daniel B. Walton, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and F. Sun, A. Hall, and X. Qu


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Poster Session
Poster Session I
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Hai Lin, EC, Dorval, QC
 
96
The long-term changes of tropospheric lapse rate over China and Its Relations to Surface Warming
Tianbao Zhao Sr., Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

 
97
A Synoptic Climatology of Southern Plains Winter Storms
Esther D. White, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie and P. J. Lamb
Manuscript (4.6 MB)

Poster PDF (15.6 MB)

 
98
 
99
Dynamical mechanism of meteorological variables in a complicated region
Kyungsik Kim, Pukyong National University, Busan, South Korea

 
Poster 101 will now present as TJ33.2A

 
102
 
104
Regional Variability of Seasonal Climate Change in NARCCAP
Seth A. McGinnis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. O. Mearns and L. McDaniel

Poster PDF (18.1 MB)

 
105
Uncertainty in Future Scenarios of N2O Emission Simulations in Agro-ecosystems in Kansas
Miguel Arango, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS; and C. W. Rice and A. Anandhi

 
106
The Effect of Weighting on the NARCCAP Ensemble Mean
Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Thompson and L. O. Mearns

Poster PDF (6.3 MB)

 
107
 
108
Assessing regional behavior of extreme value statistics from NARCCAP
David B. Mechem, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and N. A. Brunsell

 
109
Long-term Trends and Variability of Rainfall Extremes in the Philippines
Marcelino Quilates Villafuerte II, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji-shi, Tokyo, Japan; and J. Matsumoto, I. Akasaka, and H. Kubota

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

 
110
Precipitation Trends 1900-2005 Over the Globe from Reconstruction and Coupled Model Simulations
Li Ren, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and P. A. Arkin, T. Smith, and S. Shen

 
111
Vulnerability and Resilience of Urban Water Systems under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios
Dan O. Sauceda, DRI, Reno, NV; and J. Mejia and J. Huntington

 
114
Climatological propagation of atmospheric phenomena
Eunho Choi, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; and G. H. Lim

 
115
Changes in Air-Freezing Index and frost depth between two climate normals periods
Rocky G. Bilotta, ERT and NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and E. Shepherd and J. E. Bell

 
116
Distinguishing Tropical and Extratropical Dynamical Regimes Based on Rossby Number Statistics
Steven J. Brey, University of Washington, Woodinville, WA; and N. A. Davis and T. Birner


Poster Session
Poster Session II
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Hai Lin, EC, Dorval, QC
 
125
Addressing Issues Related to Animal Agriculture and Climate Change through Extension Programming
Pamela N. Knox, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and M. Risse, G. Hawkins, E. Whitefield, D. Smith, C. Powers, D. Schmidt, and J. Pronto

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

 
126
Climatic impacts of a stochastic parameterization of air–sea fluxes
Paul D. Williams, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

 
127
Evidence of Long Period Modulations in Spectral Aerosol Optical Depths Over Central Himalayas
Devulapalli Venkata Phanikumar, ARIES, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India; and N. K. Kondapalli, K. K. Shukla, M. V. Ratnam, and M. Naja

 
128
 
129
Analysis of Aridity Trend over Mid-latitude Semi-arid Region Using GLDAS Data
Xiaodan Guan, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China; and J. Huang and S. Cheng

 
130
Past and Future Heat Waves in Central/Eastern Europe - Case Study for Hungary Using PRECIS Simulations
Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, E. B. Bartha, and I. Pieczka
Manuscript (2.9 MB)

Poster PDF (733.6 kB)

 
132
'Evaluation of Precipitation Diurnal Variability by TRMM: Case of Pakistan's 2010 Intense Monsoon'
Hannah K. Huelsing, NWC, Norman, OK; and S. Khan, Y. Hong, and H. Vergara

 
133
Sensitivity of Lake-Effect Snowfall to Lake Ice Cover and Temperature in the Great Lakes Region
David M. Wright, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt and A. L. Steiner

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

 
134
New aspects on the interdecadal variability of East Asian winter monsoon
Kyung-Ja Ha, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; and J. G. Jhun and S. S. Lee

 
135
A Regional Intercomparison of Rainfall and Wind Speed Extremes
Michael C. Kruk, ERT, Inc., Asheville, NC; and J. Marra

 
136
Extreme Temperature Regimes in the United States: Long-term Trends and Low Frequency Mode Modulation in Observations and CMIP5 Models
Rebecca Westby, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and Y. Y. Lee and R. X. Black

 
137
Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Florida's Future Hurricane Event Risk
Michelle Ruiz, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

 
139
Mechanisms and Sources of Predictability of the North Pacific Warming in the Late 1980s and Early 1990s
Jason R. Webster, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and B. Dong, R. Sutton, and D. M. Smith

Poster PDF (5.3 MB)

 
140
Projected Changes in Heavy Precipitation over North America in CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations
Anthony M. DeAngelis, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and A. J. Broccoli

Poster PDF (390.8 kB)

 
141
Extreme precipitation Indices Derived from the NOAA CPC Unified Precipitation Data: Implications for Decision-Making
Kremena Darmenova, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Chantilly, VA; and D. Apling and G. Higgins

 
142
Contemporary meteorological observations facilitate interpretation of a new multi-century long ice core from the Antarctic Peninsula
Daniel R. Miller, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and E. Mosley-Thompson and B. P. Goodwin

 
143
 
144
Decadal Changes in Cold Surge Characteristics over Northeast Asia and Their relation with the Arctic Oscillation for the Past Three Decades (1979–2011)
Sung-Ho Woo, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan, Gyeonggi, South Korea; and B. M. Kim, J. H. Jeong, S. J. Kim, and G. H. Lim

 
145
Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Climate Products from GPS Radio Occultation Data
Chi O. Ao, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and O. P. Verkhoglyadova, S. S. Leroy, and A. J. Mannucci

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 5A
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change I
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO
  11:00 AM
5A.1
  11:30 AM
5A.3
Independent Confirmation of Global Land Warming without the Use of Station Temperatures
Gilbert P. Compo, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO ; and P. D. Sardeshmukh, J. S. Whitaker, P. Brohan, P. D. Jones, and C. McColl

Recording files available
Session 5B
Tropical Climate Variability: ENSO
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Nat Johnson, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
  11:00 AM
5B.1
Change in ENSO's Amplitude due to Global Warming
Soon-Il An, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and J. Choi

  11:30 AM
5B.3
  11:45 AM
5B.4
North Tropical Atlantic SST as a Trigger of El Niño
Jong-Seong Kug, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Ansan, South Korea; and Y. Ham, J. Park, and F. F. Jin

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 6A
Climate Data and Analysis
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Hai Lin, EC, Dorval, QC
  1:45 PM
6A.2
Case study on the impact of homogenizing monthly temperature series along coastal California
R. Bornstein, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and A. T. Ghebreegziabhe, M. J. Menne, and J. Gonzalez
  2:00 PM
6A.3
A Long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous U.S.: Update and extensions
Ben Livneh, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and E. A. Rosenberg, C. Lin, V. Mishra, K. Andreadis, E. P. Maurer, and D. P. Lettenmaier
  2:30 PM
6A.5
Homogenisation of Daily Climate Data and Analysis of Climate Extremes in Pacific Island Nations
Kirien Whan, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and S. McGree, A. A. Imielska, D. Jones, and L. Alexander
  2:45 PM
6A.6
Recording files available
Session 6B
Tropical Climate Variability I
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA/CPC, College Park, MD
  2:00 PM
6B.3
Tropical Pacific Sea Level Pressure Trends Indicate a Strengthening Walker Circulation
Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. Lee and B. Lyon

  2:15 PM
6B.4
Using New Versions of the GPCP and TMPA Data Sets to Assess Interannual Variation of Tropical Precipitation
Eric J. Nelkin, SSAI and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. J. Huffman, D. T. Bolvin, R. F. Adler, W. S. Olson, and C. D. Kummerow
  2:45 PM
6B.6
Revisiting the Tropical Cyclone—Easterly Wave Relationship on Interannual Time Scales
James I. Belanger, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and J. A. Curry and M. T. Jelinek

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 7A
Climate Analysis
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Adam H. Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC
  3:30 PM
7A.1
State of the Climate in 2012
Derek S. Arndt, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
  3:45 PM
7A.2
The Temporal Autocorrelation Structure of Sea Surface Winds
Adam H. Monahan, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
  4:30 PM
7A.5
The Connection between Alaska and Greenland Ice Cores under Different Climate Regimes
Stacy E. Porter, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and E. Mosley-Thompson and L. G. Thompson
  4:45 PM
7A.6
Relative contributions of synoptic and low-frequency eddies to time-mean atmospheric moisture transport, including the role of atmospheric rivers
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis, K. M. Weickmann, F. M. Ralph, and P. D. Sardeshmukh
  5:00 PM
7A.7
Changes in Cloud Cover, Precipitation, and Summer Temperature from 1982 to 2009
Qiuhong Tang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and G. Leng
  5:15 PM
7A.8
Recording files available
Session 7B
Extreme Weather and Climate Change III
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
  3:30 PM
7B.1
Observed Increases in Probable Maximum Precipitation Over Global Land Areas
David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and K. E. Kunkel and X. Yin
  3:45 PM
7B.2
Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods and Droughts in the United States: State of Knowledge
Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Heim, T. R. Karl, R. S. Vose, R. Hirsch, D. Kaiser, H. E. Brooks, N. S. Diffenbaugh, R. M. Dole, J. P. Giovannettone, K. Guirguis, R. W. Katz, K. E. Kunkel, D. Lettenmaier, G. J. McCabe, C. J. Paciorek, K. R. Ryberg, S. D. Schubert, V. Silva, B. C. Stewart, A. V. Vecchia, G. Villarini, J. Walsh, M. F. Wehner, D. Wolock, K. E. Wolter, C. A. Woodhouse, and D. J. Wuebbles
  4:00 PM
7B.3
Heat Wave Frequency Variability over North America: Two Distinct Leading Modes
Zhiwei Wu, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and H. Lin
  4:30 PM
7B.5
The changing nature of severe snowstorms in the U.S
Jay Lawrimore, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and M. Squires, K. E. Kunkel, and D. A. Robinson
  5:00 PM
7B.7
Changes in Precipitation Extremes in Major Global Urban Areas
Vimal Mishra, Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India; and B. Nijssen and D. Lettenmaier
  5:15 PM
7B.8
Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in the Pacific
Agata A. Imielska, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and K. Whan, S. McGree, D. Jones, and L. V. Alexander
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 27
Medium-range, Sub-seasonal and Seasonal-scale Forecast Techniques and Modeling for Energy Demand Part 2
Location: Room 6A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; and the 11th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )
Cochairs: Travis Hartman, MDA Information Systems, Inc (EarthSat Wx), Gaithersburg, MD; Stephen Bennett, EarthRisk Technologies, San Diego, CA; Andrew E. Mercer, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS
  3:30 PM
TJ27.1
Global Climate Change: An Energy Industry Perspective
Jon Davis, Chesapeake Energy, Chicago, IL; and J. Darr and M. S. Russo
  3:45 PM
TJ27.2
Empirical models of climate prediction on subseasonal to seasonal time scales
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES/CDC and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO
  4:00 PM
TJ27.3
Arctic Sea Ice Predictability Beyond the Seasonal Scale
Philip W. Jones, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and C. M. Bitz, E. P. Chassignet, M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke, W. Maslowski, and P. Posey
  4:30 PM
TJ27.5
  4:45 PM
TJ27.6
  5:00 PM
TJ27.7
Earth System Prediction Capability Demonstration Goal #1 – Improved 1-6 Week Forecasting of Extreme Weather Related to Blocking Events – Initial Directions
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and W. Higgins, A. Kumar, M. Chen, R. M. Dole, J. Perlwitz, M. Hoerling, T. M. Hamill, K. Pegion, J. M. Brown, R. Bleck, S. Sun, M. Fiorino, and M. S. Peng
  5:15 PM
TJ27.8

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2013


Duce Symposium Banquet
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

Wednesday, 9 January 2013

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 8
Arctic and High Latitude Climate Variability I
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Xiangdong Zhang, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK
  8:30 AM
8.1
The Contribution of Frozen Ground Changes in Eurasia to Arctic Amplification
Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and L. Chen and T. Zhang

  8:45 AM
8.2
Rapid Changes in Arctic Sea Ice: How Do Climate Models Capture the Reality?
Xiangdong Zhang, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK

  9:15 AM
8.4
  9:30 AM
8.5
The Seasonal Cycle of Polar Specific Humidity Inversions in Four Reanalyses
Michael A. Brunke, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and S. T. Stegall and X. Zeng
  9:45 AM
8.6
The Characteristic Variability and Connection to the Underlying Synoptic Activity of the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas Low
Alex J. Wovrosh, The Ohio State University, Athens, OH; and R. L. Fogt, R. A. Langen, and I. Simmonds
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 29
Climate Trends and Projections in the Coastal Environment—Part I
Location: Room 18B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
CoChair: Hyodae Seo, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA
  8:30 AM
TJ29.1
Statistical Downscaling and Forecast of Global Warming Reverse-Reaction Coastal Cooling in the California South Coast Air Basin
Pedro Sequera, City College of New York, New York, NY; and R. D. Bornstein and J. Gonzalez

  8:45 AM
TJ29.2
Isolation of Summer Coastal Marine Air From California's Great Interior Valley
Clive E. Dorman, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and D. Koracin and H. Seo
  9:00 AM
TJ29.3
High-Resolution Decadal Climate Predictions of Coastal Regions in the US Northeast
Jorge Gonzalez, City College of New York, New York, NY; and L. Ortiz, M. Arend, and B. Lebassi-Habtezion
  9:30 AM
TJ29.5
Trends in surface 1970-2010 Southern California Maximum Temperatures: Extremes and Heat Waves
Amanuel T. Ghebreegziabher, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and R. Bornstein, J. Gonzalez, and B. Lebassi
  9:45 AM
TJ29.6
Upwelling and Coastal Climate
Darko Koracin, DRI, Reno, NV; and J. Mejia, K. C. King, and C. E. Dorman

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 31
News from the National Climate Assessment, Hot Off the Press: Part I
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Fifth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions )
Chair: Emily Therese Cloyd, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC
  8:30 AM
TJ31.1
The National Climate Assessment: Overview and Key Findings [INVITED]
Kathy Jacobs, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; and J. Melillo
  9:00 AM
TJ31.2
The U.S. National Climate Assessment: The Science of Climate Change [INVITED]
Donald J. Wuebbles, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. E. Walsh, K. Hayhoe, K. E. Kunkel, G. Stephens, P. Thorne, R. S. Vose, M. F. Wehner, and J. Willis
  9:15 AM
TJ31.3
Assessing changes in Extreme Weather and Climate Events [INVITED]
Kenneth E. Kunkel, NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC
  9:30 AM
TJ31.4
Short-lived radiative forcings of the climate system [INVITED]
Graeme Stephens, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
  9:45 AM
Discussion

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Spouses' Coffee
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

10:30 AM-11:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 33
Climate Trends and Projections in the Coastal Environment—Part II
Location: Room 18B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Hyodae Seo, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA
  10:30 AM
TJ33.1
Fingerprints of Precipitation Changes from CMIP5 Models over Land and Ocean
Beena Balan Sarojini, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and P. A. Stott, E. Black, and D. Polson
  10:45 AM
TJ33.2A
Model Errors in Precipitation, Surface Insolation and Cloudiness in the NARCCAP Hindcast Experiment
Jinwon Kim, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. E. Waliser, L. O. Mearns, C. Mattmann, S. A. McGinnis, H. K. Lee, C. Goodale, A. Hart, D. Crichton, and P. Loikth
  11:15 AM
TJ33.4
Projections of ocean properties along the Washington coast: 20–30 years from now
Wei Cheng, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. Bond and A. Hermann

Poster PDF (7.4 MB)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part I
Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Om Tripathi, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
  11:00 AM
J3.3
Applications of RCMs for Understanding Climate Change in the Central US
Eugene S. Takle, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. J. Anderson
  11:15 AM
J3.4
Regional Climate Models' Dynamic Downscaling Ability and Major Factors that Affect this Ability
Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and F. De Sales, R. Vasic, T. Sato, Y. Gao, and L. Druyan

  11:30 AM
J3.5
Understanding the role of local scale climate drivers over Africa using the GA3-based regional climate model
Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Jones and J. Rodriguez

  11:45 AM
J3.6
Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP 6.0
Tanya L. Otte, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and C. G. Nolte, G. Faluvegi, and D. Shindell

Recording files available
Session 9
Arctic and High Latitude Climate Variability II
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Xiangdong Zhang, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK
  10:30 AM
9.1
Recent Changes in Accumulation on the Bruce Plateau, Antarctica
Bradley P. Goodwin, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and E. Mosley-Thompson and M. R. Sierra-Hernandez
  10:45 AM
9.2
Bering Strait's effect on AMOC independent of the background climate
Aixue Hu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Meehl, W. Han, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, and N. Rosenbloom
  11:15 AM
9.4
Monitoring of Changing Arctic Cryosphere and Circumpolar Vortex for Better Mid-latitude Climate Prediction
Gwangyong Choi, Jeju National University, Jeju-si, Jeju-do, South Korea; and D. A. Robinson and J. Kim

  11:30 AM
9.5
A Possible Linkage between Arctic Sea-ice Loss and Stratospheric Polar Vortex
Baek Min Kim, Korean Polar Research Institute, Inchon, South Korea; and S. K. Min, S. W. Son, J. H. Jeong, and S. J. Kim

  11:45 AM
9.6
Initial Transient Response of the Polar Stratospheric Vortex to Idealized Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in WACCM
Bradley M. Hegyi, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and Y. Deng, R. X. Black, and R. Zhou
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 35
News from the National Climate Assessment, Hot Off the Press: Part II
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Fifth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions )
Chair: Emily Therese Cloyd, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC
  10:30 AM
Introductory Notes by Emily Cloyd
  10:45 AM
TJ35.1
  11:15 AM
TJ35.2A
Mitigation
Anthony Janetos, Univ of Maryland, College Park, MD
  11:30 AM
TJ35.3
Climate Effects on Agriculture [INVITED]
Eugene S. Takle, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and J. L. Hatfield
  12:00 PM
Discussion

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Town Hall Meeting: National Climate Assessment: Further Defining Actionable Information
Location: Room 15 (Austin Convention Center)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 10A
Clouds and Radiation
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Joel R. Norris, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA
  1:30 PM
10A.1
  1:45 PM
10A.2
Characterizing and Understanding cloud-precipitation-radiation-dynamical interactions using CloudSat/CALIPSO and other A-Train observations
Jui-Lin F. Li, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, S. Lee, M. Deng, T. L'Ecuyer, and G. Stephens

  2:00 PM
10A.3
The Role of Clouds in Polar Amplification
Patrick C. Taylor, NASA, Hampton, VA; and M. Cai

  2:15 PM
10A.4
Effects of Implementing Subgrid-Scale Cloud-Radiation Interactions in a Regional Climate Model
Jerold A. Herwehe, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and K. Alapaty, T. Otte, and C. Nolte

Recording files available
Session 10B
Impact of MJO on Weather and Climate
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: C. Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
  1:30 PM
10B.1
Some aspects of the impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the state of the Arctic
Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and G. Henderson and M. LaFleur
  1:45 PM
10B.2
Impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation on South America and its teleconnection with southern Africa
Alice M. Grimm, Federal University of Parana, Curitiba, Parana, Brazil

  2:00 PM
10B.3
Disruptions of ENSO Teleconnections by the MJO
Andrew Hoell, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and M. Barlow
  2:15 PM
10B.4
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 38
Tools for making use of climate predictions and earth systems analysis: GIS and Python Part I
Location: Room 12B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Third Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Chair: Johnny Wei-Bing Lin, North Park Univ., Chicago, IL
  1:30 PM
TJ38.1
  2:00 PM
TJ38.2

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Poster Session
Poster Session III
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO
 
563
The robustness of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)
Mona Behl, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. Nof and S. Van Gorder

Poster PDF (546.9 kB)

 
565
Enhanced MJO-like Variability at High SST in a Super-Parameterized GCM
Nathan P. Arnold, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang and E. Tziperman

 
566
Analysis of Convectively Coupled Equatorial Kelvin Waves in a GCM with a Modified Entrainment Profile
Raymond Ruiz, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and W. Hannah, J. J. Benedict, and E. D. Maloney

 
567
Decadal ENSO Modulation of the Last Millennium Simulation
Jung Choi, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and S. I. An

 
568
Climatology of Tropical and Transitional Extratropical Cyclones in the New Zealand Region
Stacey M. Hitchcock, University of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and P. J. Lamb

 
569
Precipitation, Elevation and Relief in the Tropics
Stephen W. Nesbitt, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. M. Anders

 
570
Climate extremes in uncoupled and coupled regional climate models
Tarun Verma, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and J. S. Hsieh, C. M. Patricola, R. Saravanan, and P. Chang

Poster PDF (6.8 MB)

 
571
CloudSat-derived Morphology of Deep Convection over Tropical Oceans
Aryeh J. Drager, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH; and M. R. Igel and S. C. van den Heever

 
573
An Analysis of the Local Environmental Memory of Tropical Cyclone Passage
Benjamin Schenkel, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

 
574
Examination of the global Lorenz energy cycle and preliminary applications for regime shift
Maeng-Ki Kim, Kongju National University, Gongju, South Korea; and Y. H. Kim, W. K. M. Lau, C. H. Cho, K. M. Kim, and W. S. Lee

 
576
Evolution of intraseasonal precipitation variability in the Blue Nile River basin
Fisseha Berhane, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik and A. K. Dezfuli

 
577
Analysis of Teleconnections and Drought for the Arbuckle-Simpson Aquifer
Virginia G. Silvis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. McPherson, H. Lazrus, M. B. Richman, and M. D. Hunter

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

 
578
The North Atlantic Oscillation: Impact on Snowfall Conditions in the Northeastern United States
Holly M. Widen, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. S. M. Coleman

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

 
579
The Change of the North American Monsoon Seasonal Precipitation in the CCSMv4 under IPCC CO2 Emission Scenarios
Manuel Hernandez Jr., Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and J. Tribbia and J. Caron

 
581
 
582
Decadal Variability in Ensemble Projections
Stefan Liess, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN; and P. K. Snyder, A. Kumar, and V. Kumar

 
583
Anthropogenic Forcing on Changes in the Wintertime Atmospheric Variability in the Pacific Sector
Qigang Wu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and X. Zhang


Joint Poster Session
Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Posters Part I
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA
 
539
Evaluating CEOP Model Performance in Semi-Arid Region of China
Weidong Guo, Insititute for Climate and Global Change Researching University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and X. Ling

 
540
Sensitivity of a Simulated Deep Convective Storm to WRF Microphysical Schemes and Horizontal Resolution
Annareli Morales, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. M. Villanueva-Birriel and H. Morrison

Poster PDF (1013.2 kB)

 
541
Comparing nudging techniques with increasing horizontal resolution in regional climate models
Kevin Talgo, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and J. Bowden, N. Davis, A. Xiu, and A. Hanna

 
542
 
543
 
544
Downscaling of monsoon onset using pseudo global warming method
Mikiko Fujita, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; and M. Hara, N. N. Ishizaki, H. G. Takahashi, and F. Kimura

 
545
Downscaling NOAA's Three-Month Precipitation Outlook
Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. C. Meyers, D. A. Unger, and A. Hollingshead

 
546
Effects of Agricultural Irrigation on Heat Waves in the Contiguous United States using WRF3.3-CLM4crop
Yaqiong Lu, University of California, Merced, CA; and J. Jin and L. M. Kueppers

 
547
High-resolution regional climate projections over South Asia
Rui Mei, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and D. Touma and M. Ashfaq

 
548
Lake Process Simulations with a Regional Climate Model
Jiming Jin, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and H. Gu, Y. Wu, and M. Ek

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Technology Supporting Earth Science Information
Location: Room 11AB (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Cochairs: Gerald J. Dittberner, Harris Corporation, Springfield, VA; Nancy N. Soreide, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA; Tom Whittaker, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
  4:00 PM
J1.1
2012 Arctic Report Card—tracking recent environmental changes
Martin Jeffries, Office of Naval Research & University of Alaska Fairbanks, Arlington, VA; and J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, and N. N. Soreide
  4:15 PM
J1.2
Data Discovery and Access to The International Surface Pressure Databank
Thomas A. Cram, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, C. McColl, D. Schuster, and S. Worley
  4:30 PM
J1.3
GLIDER: A tool built on open framework to visualize, analyze and mine satellite imagery
Rahul Ramachandran, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. Berendes, M. Maskey, and S. Graves
  4:45 PM
J1.4
Arctic Rediscovery
Kevin R. Wood, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. Mollan, P. Brohan, and N. N. Soreide
  5:15 PM
J1.6
Recording files available
Session 11A
Extreme Weather and Climate Change IV
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Xiaolan Wang, EC, Toronto, ON
  4:00 PM
11A.1
Anatomy of an Extreme Event: The 2011 Texas Heat Wave and Drought
Martin Hoerling, NOAA/ESRL-PSD, Boulder, CO; and A. Kumar, R. M. Dole, J. Nielsen-Gammon, J. K. Eischeid, J. Perlwitz, X. Quan, T. Zhang, P. Pegion, and M. Chen
  4:15 PM
11A.2
Toward Data-Intensive Drought Monitoring and Predictions to Mitigate Drought Impacts in the 21 Century
Jae H. Ryu, University of Idaho, Boise, ID; and M. Sohrabi and A. Acharya

  4:30 PM
11A.3
  4:45 PM
11A.4
  5:15 PM
11A.6
Geographic Distribution of Trends in Tropical Pacific Rainfall Extremes
Michael D. Klatt, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Morrissey and J. S. Greene
Recording files available
Session 11B
Tropical Climate Variability II
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD
  4:15 PM
11B.2
Interactions between the TC/submonthly Wave Pattern and ISO in the Western North Pacific
Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu
  4:30 PM
11B.3
Northward Propagation Mechanisms of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the ERA-Interim Renalysis and the SP-CCSM
Charlotte DeMott, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. Stan and D. A. Randall
  4:45 PM
11B.4
Absorbing Aerosol Induced Change in the Early Monsoon Arabian Sea Low Level Jet
Andrew Martin, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and D. T. N. Krishnamurti and W. K. M. Lau
  5:00 PM
11B.5
Tropical ocean surface energy balance variability: Linking weather to climate scales
J. Brent Roberts, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and C. A. Clayson

  5:15 PM
11B.6
Low Frequency Variations in the Hadley and Walker Circulations
Chris C. Funk, USGS/Earth Resources Observation Systems, Santa Barbara, CA; and M. Barlow and A. Hoell
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 40
Atmospheric Chemistry at the Climate/Policy Interface
Location: Room 16A (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fifth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the 15th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research )
Chair: Juliane L. Fry, Reed College, Portland, OR
  4:00 PM
TJ40.1
  5:00 PM
TJ40.3
Retrospective Evaluation of Recent State Implementation Plans for Ozone
Daniel S. Cohan, Rice Univ., Houston, TX; and A. H. Pegues
  5:15 PM
TJ40.4
The Role of Intercontinental Transport in a Changing Climate
Timothy Glotfelty, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. Zhang, D. Streets, and P. Karamchandani
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 41
Tools for making use of climate predictions and earth systems analysis: GIS and Python Part II
Location: Room 12B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Third Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology )
Chair: Johnny Wei-Bing Lin, North Park Univ., Chicago, IL
  4:30 PM
TJ41.2
The Google Earth Engine Python API (invited)
Tyler A. Erickson, Google Inc., Mountain View, CA

  5:00 PM
Panel Discussion

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part II
Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Om Tripathi, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
  4:00 PM
J4.1
  4:30 PM
J4.3
Land use change and Sahel precipitation
Samson M. Hagos, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung, Y. Xue, A. A. Boone, and N. Neupane
  4:45 PM
J4.4
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Western North Pacific during the Last Decades Derived from a Regional Climate Model Simulation
Monika J. Barcikowska, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany; and F. Feser and H. von Storch

  5:00 PM
J4.5A
Dynamically Downscaled IPCC RCM Climate Projections for the Southwest U.S. and Their Applicability in Hydrologic Resource Projection
Hsin-I Chang, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. L. Castro, P. A. Troch, M. B. Switanek, T. Luong, and F. Dominguez
  5:15 PM
J4.6
A high-resolution, event-based modeling framework for understanding the impact of climate change on hydrometeorological extreme events
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and V. L. Sankovich, R. J. Caldwell, M. A. Alexander, J. D. Scott, and J. Barsugli
  5:30 PM
J4.7
A modeling analysis of rainfall and water cycle by the cloud-resolving WRF model over western North Pacific
Wenhua Gao, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and C. H. Sui

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


93rd AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)

Thursday, 10 January 2013

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part III
Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Francina Dominguez, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
  8:30 AM
J5.1
Projections of a Wetter Sahel in the 21st Century from Global and Regional Models
Edward Vizy, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

  9:00 AM
J5.3
The arid/semi-arid region of East Asia: A hot spot of soil temperature-atmosphere coupling
Jingyong Zhang, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

  9:30 AM
J5.5
Recording files available
Session 12A
Teleconnections and Climate Modes I
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Nat Johnson, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
  9:30 AM
12A.5
The Changing Impacts of El Niño on US Winter Climate
Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and Y. Zou, S. T. Kim, and T. Lee
Recording files available
Session 12B
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change II
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
  8:30 AM
12B.1
  8:45 AM
12B.2
  9:00 AM
12B.3
Climatic variations in summer precipitation and their impacts on streamflow in the Michigan Lower Peninsula
Daria B. Kluver, Central Michigan University, Mount Pleasant, MI; and J. L. Ryder and T. A. Dahl

  9:15 AM
12B.4
Possible climate change over Northern Eurasia
Erwan Monier, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and A. P. Sokolov, C. A. Schlosser, X. Gao, and J. Scott
  9:30 AM
12B.5

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Joint Poster Session
Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Posters Part II
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Om Tripathi, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
 
549
The Climatic Effects of Deforestation in South and Southeast Asia
Rachindra Mawalagedara, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and R. J. Oglesby

 
551
Seasonal Climatology Studies for Tropical Regions
Prabhat Kumar Thakur, Indian Instiute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; and R. Mittal, V. Saxena, T. George, L. A. Treinish, A. P. Praino, J. Cipriani, L. Dagar, A. G. Naim, H. Hassan, and S. A. Husain

Poster PDF (436.4 kB)

 
552
Possible North Atlantic extratropical cyclone activity in a warmer climate
Lanli Guo, BIO, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and W. Perrie and Z. Long

 
553
The uneven decline in different snow measures due to human-induced climate warming
David W. Pierce, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA; and D. R. Cayan

 
554
New Daily and Monthly Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Projections
Levi D. Brekke, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO; and B. Thrasher, T. Pruitt, E. P. Maurer, C. Tebaldi, J. R. Arnold, and J. Long

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

 
555
The Use of Hydrological Similarity Concepts to Represent Sub-grid Variability in a Snowmelt Dominated Watershed
Andrew J. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Clark, A. Winstral, and D. Marks

 
556
Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season
Hsin-I Chang, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. L. Castro and M. Leuthold

 
557
Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis
Ian Kraucunas, PNNL, Richland, WA; and L. Clarke, J. Dirks, M. hejazi, K. A. Hibbard, M. Huang, A. Janetos, M. Kintner-Meyer, K. Kleese Van Dam, L. R. Leung, R. Moss, J. Rice, M. J. Scott, A. Thomson, T. West, P. Whitney, and Z. Yang

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)

 
558
The North American Monsoon: Implications from WRF Modeling
Dorothea Ivanova, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ; and D. L. Mitchell

 
560
Dynamical Downscaling with Regional Integrated Environmental Modeling System (RIEMS) over East Asia
Deming Zhao, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, Beijing, China

 
561
Assessment of add-value of dynamical downscaling in Japan
Koji Dairaku, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan; and S. IIzuka, W. Sasaki, R. A. Pielke Sr., N. Tsunematsu, and J. Hirano

 
562
Approximated Equations of Urban Climate by Scale Analysis
Ali Gholizadeh Touchaei, Concordia University, Montreal, QC, Canada

Poster PDF (159.4 kB)

9:45 AM-11:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Poster Session
Poster Session IV
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO
 
585
The role of summer surface wind anomalies in the summer Arctic sea ice extent in 2010 and 2011
Masayo Ogi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and J. M. Wallace

 
586
Florida's Unprecedented Dry Season "Significant Tornado Drought"
Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA, Melbourne, FL
Manuscript (1.8 MB)

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)

 
587
Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Late 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi, S. Garner, M. Zhao, H. S. Kim, M. Bender, I. Held, R. E. Tuleya, and G. Villarini

Poster PDF (4.6 MB)

 
588
Temporal Analysis of Interannual Soil Moisture Variability in Iowa
Angela Khong, Texas A&M University , College Station, TX; and J. K. Wang, S. M. Quiring, and T. W. Ford

 
589
High-resolution Modeling Studies of the Changing Risks of Damage from Extratropical Cyclones
Michelle L. Cipullo, North Carolina State University, Salisbury, NC; and W. A. Robinson and G. Lackmann

 
590
Tropospheric Water Vapor Anomalies During the 2006-07 and 2009-10 El Niños
Hanii Takahashi, City University of New York, New York, NY; and H. Su, J. Jiang, Z. J. Luo, S. P. Xie, and J. Hafner

Poster PDF (3.0 MB)

 
591
Spatial Variability of In Situ Soil Moisture in Iowa
Jessica K. Wang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and A. Khong, S. M. Quiring, and T. W. Ford

 
592
West African Monsoon Demise
Kerry H. Cook, University of Texa, Austin, TX; and G. Zhang

 
593
Spatial and temporal variability of snow accumulation rate and air transports at East Antarctic ice sheet in 1993–2010
Kazue Suzuki, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan; and H. Motoyama, K. Kawamura, and T. Yamanouchi

 
594
What Control the Dry Bias over Amazonian by CMIP5 Models and Its Implication for Future Projections?
Lei Yin, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and R. Fu, E. Shevliakova, and R. E. Dickinson

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)

 
Poster 595 has been moved. New paper number is 15B.5A

 
596
Sensitivity of Arctic Warming to the Sea Surface Temperature Distribution over Sea-ice Melted Region in the AGCM Experiments
Sang-Yoon Jun, Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea; and C. H. Ho, B. M. Kim, J. H. Jeong, and Y. J. Kim

 
597
Impacts of Arctic temperature variation on the East Asia Climate
Yeon-Soo Jang, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology, Ansan, South Korea; and J. H. Jeong, B. M. Kim, and J. S. Kug

 
598
A Numerical Investigation of Thermal Dynamics of Permafrost in Northern Eurasia
Liang Chen, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and O. Frauenfeld and T. Zhang

 
599
Extreme rainfall on the eastern seaboard of Australia
Agata A. Imielska, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. Alexander and B. Timbal

 
600
How Does Coldwave Frequency in China Respond to a Warming Climate?
Tingting Ma Sr., Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Z. Jiang and Z. Wu

 
602
Seasonal prediction of monsoon Asia using CMIP5
Vinay Kumar, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

 
603
Globally-gridded night-time marine air temperatures
Robert A. Junod, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Christy

Poster PDF (5.5 MB)

 
604
California Precipitation Variability in a Warming World
Daniel Killam, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA; and A. Bui, S. LaDochy, P. Ramirez, W. C. Patzert, and J. Willis

Poster PDF (306.3 kB)

 
605
A Surprise in the North Pacific: Results From Applying a New Nonlinear Method for Calibrating Ice Cores
Eric P. Kelsey, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH; and C. P. Wake and E. Osterberg

Poster PDF (2.2 MB)

 
606
Determining Gulf Surge Contributions to NAM Precipitation Using Observational and Reanalysis Data
Jennifer Stutler, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. L. Castro, J. J. Brost, and H. I. Chang

Poster PDF (672.0 kB)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Joint Session 6
Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale Part IV
Location: Room 10B (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; and the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA
  11:15 AM
J6.2
Refining WRF Downscaling from 36-km to 12-km Resolution
O. Russell Bullock Jr., EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and M. S. Mallard, K. Alapaty, J. A. Herwehe, and T. L. Otte

  11:45 AM
J6.4
Influence of Soil Moisture Initialization on Local Precipitation Patterns in the Western Ghats
Wendilyn J. Flynn, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO; and S. W. Nesbitt
Recording files available
Session 13A
Teleconnections and Climate Modes II
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Christopher G. Fletcher, Univ. of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON
  11:00 AM
13A.1
Blocking variability and linkages with teleconnections
Giacomo Masato, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and B. J. Hoskins and T. J. Woollings
  11:15 AM
13A.2
The Role of Linear Interference in the Annular Mode Response to Tropical SST Forcing
Christopher G. Fletcher, Univ. of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada; and P. J. Kushner
  11:30 AM
13A.3
Anatomizing Synoptic Eddy–NAO Interaction through Eddy-Structure Decomposition
Hong-Li Ren, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and F. F. Jin and L. Gao

  11:45 AM
13A.4
Using Enstrophy Transport as a Diagnostic to Identify Flow Regime Transformation
Andrew D. Jensen, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo and I. I. Mokhov
Recording files available
Session 13B
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change III
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Brian Tang, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY
  11:00 AM
13B.1
The Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends
David W. J. Thompson, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and D. J. Seidel, W. J. Randel, C. Z. Zou, A. H. Butler, R. Lin, C. S. Long, C. A. Mears, and A. Osso
  11:15 AM
13B.2
  11:30 AM
13B.3
Magnitude and significance of observed trends in precipitation frequency over the U.S
Indrani Pal, Boston University, Boston, MA; and B. T. Anderson, G. Salvucci, and D. Gianotti

  11:45 AM
13B.4
Extratropical Lapse Rates in Very Hot Climates
Ryan Alexander Zamora, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and R. Korty, M. Huber, and D. Thomas

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 14A
Climate Modeling
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Christopher G. Fletcher, Univ. of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON
  1:30 PM
14A.1
Using Observing Systems to Differentiate Climate Models According by Their Low-Cloud Feedback Strengths
Daniel Feldman, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA; and W. Collins
  2:15 PM
14A.3A
A new snow microphysics parameterization applied to a cloud electrification model: framework and preliminary results
Marco Formenton, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and V. Phillips and B. Lienert
  2:30 PM
14A.4
  2:45 PM
14A.5
Regional Climate Simulations with Bias Corrected GCM Forcing Data for the Western United States
Ripley C. McCoy, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and J. Jin

  3:00 PM
14A.6
Recording files available
Session 14B
Interannual Variability and Seasonal Prediction I
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA
  1:30 PM
14B.1
Effect of model resolution on tropical seasonal rainfall predictions
Wassila Mamadou Thiaw, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD

  1:45 PM
14B.2
Correcting the Bias in the CFS Version 2 Precipitation Forecasts
Pingping Xie, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and S. H. Yoo, W. Wang, and A. Kumar
  2:00 PM
14B.3
The impact of spring subsurface soil temperature and snow anomaly in the Western U.S. on Southern U.S. summer precipitation and the Texas drought 2011
Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. Vasic, S. li, C. oaida, D. A. Robinson, F. De Sales, Z. Janjic, P. C. Chu, and Y. Liu

  2:15 PM
14B.4
Trends and variability in 12+ years of pole-to-pole, fine resolution wind observations from MISR
Kevin J. Mueller, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and M. Garay

  2:30 PM
14B.5
  2:45 PM
14B.6
Seasonal Predictability in Northwestern Africa: Considering the Mix of Mid-Latitude and Tropical Influences
M. Neil Ward, Independent Scholar, Basking Ridge, NJ; and F. Driouech, S. Sahabi Abed, and H. Yazidi

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Levels 3 and 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 15A
Climate Projection
Location: Ballroom B (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Xiaolan Wang, EC, Toronto, ON
  3:30 PM
15A.1
Probabilistic forecast of long-term climate changes under different RCP scenarios
Andrei Sokolov, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. Kicklighter, E. Monier, C. A. Schlosser, and J. Scott
  3:45 PM
15A.2
Projections of North Atlantic Surface Wave Heights Using CMIP5 Simulations
Xiaolan Wang, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and Y. Feng and V. R. Swail
  4:30 PM
15A.5
Understanding Projections of Increased Convective Precipitation Intensity
Naresh Neupane, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook
  4:45 PM
15A.6A
Recording files available
Session 15B
Interannual Variability and Seasonal Prediction II
Location: Ballroom C (Austin Convention Center)
Host: 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Hai Lin, EC, Dorval, QC
  3:30 PM
15B.1
Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation over Africa
Hamada S. Badr, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik and A. K. Dezfuli
  3:45 PM
15B.2
Mechanisms that control interannual variations of the wet season onsets over the Amazon and their predictability
Lei Yin, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and R. Fu, Y. Zhang, P. Arias, and D. N. Fernando
  4:00 PM
15B.3
Global and Regional Water Vapor Variability from the New NASA Water Vapor Project-MEaSUREs (NVAP-M) Dataset
Janice L. Bytheway, Science and Technology Corporation, Laporte, CO; and T. H. Vonder Haar and J. M. Forsythe
  4:15 PM
15B.4

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2013


AMS 93rd Annual Meeting Adjourns