Analysis of Teleconnections and Drought for the Arbuckle-Simpson Aquifer

The Arbuckle-Simpson Aquifer in south-central Oklahoma, situated in the heart of the Chickasaw Nation, is the state's only sole-source groundwater basin and sustains the Blue River, the state's only free-flowing river. Recent comprehensive hydrological studies of the aquifer indicate the need for sustainable management of the amount of water extracted. The Southern Great Plains, within which the aquifer is located, are well documented to be susceptible to drought due to climate variability.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) have all been shown to affect rainfall amounts and/or drought occurrence in the region. These climate oscillations were combined into six different scenarios (e.g., positive AO, positive Oceanic Niño Index) based on existing literature and then compared statistically to the Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the climate division where the Arbuckle-Simpson Aquifer resides. The analysis presented will help inform whether prior knowledge of the existence of one of these scenarios is sufficient to reliably advise water managers regarding near-future drought conditions. This work contributes to a larger research project that brings together anthropology, hydrology, and climatology as well as meteorology to understand how people understand drought and make decisions about water management.