Monthly to seasonal prediction in support of wildland fire decision-making

This presentation will highlight monthly and seasonal prediction needs for wildland fire decision-makers. For over 10 years now, the U.S. wildland fire agencies have been utilizing a growing number of monthly and seasonal fire-climate forecasts. Initially based on predicted temperature and precipitation anomaly patterns that are still commonly used, forecasts have expanded to include other atmospheric elements (e.g., humidity, wind, heights), fire danger, fire potential and fire impacts. These forecasts are used for various aspects of seasonal planning including budget considerations, resource allocations and fuels management. This presentation will show examples of operational forecast tools, describe the utilization of various products, and discuss the role and activities of the National Predictive Services Group in providing climate services. Emphasis will be given on the latest advances in wildfire prediction capabilities and how fire management incorporates climate information and climate predictions into planning activities.