644 VERIFIED: A web-based tool to assess potential airspace constraint from operationally-relevant forecast products

Thursday, 10 January 2013
Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Geary J. Layne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. Hamer, M. P. Kay, A. Loughe, M. S. Wandishin, M. A. Petty, S. A. Lack, B. Pettegrew, and J. E. Hart

VERIFIED (VERification of Impact-translated Forecasts for IntEgrated Decision-making) is a web-based application that computes and displays information on potential air traffic flow constraints from convective weather occurring over the northeast portion of the United States. VERIFIED's timely consolidation of convective weather forecast information from numerous sources was specifically designed to support an early version of operational bridging activities established by the Collaborative Decision Making Weather Evaluation Team (CDM / WET).

This web-based application translates convective forecast outcomes into a unified view of airspace flow constraint and provides a measure of confidence on the likelihood that the specified, regional constraint will occur. Confidence is determined through a combination of historical performance of the forecast products and information gathered on short-term trends (e.g., forecast consistency and recent forecast skill). Confidence information is used to dynamically synthesize forecast products into a consolidated view of airspace flow constraint. The strength of this dynamic approach is the continuous infusion of historical and real-time verification information into the system. The entire process is designed to test the NextGen vision of weather information synthesis, and is modeled after the approach of an experienced meteorologist-over-the-loop, who combines knowledge of past forecast performance, current forecast predictions, and awareness of traffic flow patterns into an integrated view of potential airspace constraint from impending hazardous weather.

In addition to describing aspects of the web-based application, this paper will summarize statistical findings on the performance of synthesized forecasts during the summer 2012 convective season.

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