Developments of ensemble-based products for forecasters and decision support

For the last 20 years, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been at the forefront of developing ensemble-based forecasting capabilities. ECMWF has implemented a number of innovative products such as the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) that is now widely used to alert forecasters to potential extreme weather events. The range of EFI products has recently been extended to include additional parameters and forecast steps

ECMWF has introduced a new interactive web facility for forecasters (ecCharts), enabling them to tailor products for their own specific needs, for example by specifying an event (e.g. more than 20mm of precipitation in 12 hours) for which probabilistic forecasts are required.

ECMWF is continuing to develop new capabilities to support its users, with a particular focus on early warnings for severe weather-related events. ECMWF is a partner in the EU-funded GEOWOW (GEOSS Interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) project. GEOWOW will demonstrate the potential use of ensemble products for different applications. GEOWOW covers three of the GEO Societal Benefit Areas (SBA): Weather, Ocean and Water. There is a particular focus on supporting multi-disciplinary interoperability across different SBAs, including the use of weather forecast ensembles in hydrological applications.

The presentation will review these latest innovations and discuss the plans for future ensemble-based product development.