Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications

Program Chairs: Kelly M. Mahoney , CIRES/Univ. of Colorado ; Andrew L. Molthan , NASA/MSFC

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Monday, 7 January 2013

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11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2013


5
From Predictions to Impact Based Decisions: Linking Water, Weather, Coastal and Climate
Location: Ballroom G (Austin Convention Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Hydrology; the 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies (formerly IIPS); the 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 11th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications; the Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction; and the First Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise )
Moderator: Paul Sandifer, Chief Science Advisor, NOAA's National Ocean Service, Charleston, SC
Panelists: James Porter, Chief, Water System Operations, Bureau of Water Supply, NYC Department of Environmental Protection, Grahamsville, NY; Robert Hartman, NOAA/NWS, Sacramento, CA; John C. Schaake, Consulting Hydrologist, Annapolis, MD
11:00 AM
John Schaake Presentation

11:15 AM
NYC Water Supply by Jim Porter

Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Monday | Wednesday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 1
Future Techniques in Observations, Modeling, and Data Assimilation
Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications
Cochairs: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL
8:30 AM
1.1
Taking Prediction to the Next Level: Advancing the Forecast Enterprise for Decision Support Services
Louis W. Uccellini, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
1.2
Overview of the Upper Air Data Continuity Study: An Intercomparison between the National Weather Service's Legacy Upper Air System and the new Radiosonde Replacement System to asses True Climatic Variation
James Fitzgibbon, NOAA/NWS, Sterling, VA; and R. Brown and K. Webster
Manuscript (338.8 kB)

9:15 AM
1.3
Future capabilities of the Air Force Weather Agency in Data Assimilation and Numerical Weather Prediction
Fred Lewis, Director of Weather, Air Force Pentagon, Washington, DC
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1.4
Assessing the Ability of Variable-Resolution Global Models to Forecast Tropical Cyclones
Colin M. Zarzycki, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski and M. A. Taylor
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1.5
Assessment and Prediction of Seasonal Tornado Activity
Robert J. Trapp, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and M. E. Baldwin and H. E. Brooks

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Spouses' Coffee
Location: Hilton Hotel (Austin Convention Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

Meet the President
Location: Room 1 (Austin Convention Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 2
Improvements in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications
Cochairs: Brent L. Shaw, Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK; Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
10:30 AM
2.1
Recent developments in numerical guidance and forecasting strategies for the convective scale
John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, M. C. Coniglio, A. J. Clark, P. T. Marsh, D. J. Stensrud, L. J. Wicker, and I. L. Jirak
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2.2
Advancing intraseasonal forecasts through the use of a new NOAA global ensemble reforecast data set
Dan C. Collins, NOAA CPC, College Park, MD; and S. Handel, M. L'Heureux, D. Unger, T. M. Hamill, and J. S. Whitaker

11:15 AM
2.3
A confidence index for numerical weather prediction forecasts
William Capehart, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and D. V. Kliche, M. Hjelmfelt, R. Farley, G. Kierstead, P. Pick, and P. A. Haines
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2.4
Forecasting with Ensembles: A User Survey
Scott A. Sandgathe, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2.5
Situational awareness and forecast confidence: new tools for anticipating high-impact events in the West
Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and T. I. Alcott, N. Hosenfeld, R. H. Grumm, and C. Smallcomb
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 3
Current and Future Testbed Activities Supporting the Transition of Research to Operations
Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications
Cochairs: R. Bruce Telfeyan, 557th Weather Wing, Offutt AFB, NE; Lans P. Rothfusz, NOAA, Norman, OK
1:30 PM
3.1
A Whirl-Wind Testbed Tour: First Stop, HMT
F. Martin Ralph, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3.2
The Data Assimilation Research Testbed: A Community Facility for Ensemble Data Assimilation
Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Hoar, K. Raeder, N. Collins, G. Romine, H. Liu, P. H. Lauritzen, J. Kay, C. Snyder, A. Karspeck, and S. Yeager
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3.3
Utilizing the Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET) to Transition Promising New Research Techniques from Research to Operations
Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Harrold, T. Jensen, H. Jiang, T. Slovacek, G. M. Lackmann, J. Dudhia, P. Jimenez, B. A. Colle, and C. F. Mass
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)

Poster Session
Poster Session I
Location: Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications
Cochairs: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL
831
A Technique for Automated Hail Pad Processing
Peter Marinescu, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. Windschitl

Handout (330.7 kB)

832
LOAC (Light Optical Particle Counter): a new aerosols counter for the determination of their sizes and their main nature under meteorological balloons
Patrick Charpentier, MODEM, URY, France; and J. B. Renard

Handout (1.1 MB)

833
A Comparison of Planar and Cylindrical Configurations of Polarimetric Phased Array Radar for Weather Observation
Lei Lei, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Zhang and R. J. Doviak

Handout (1.5 MB)

834
Observations of tornado-scale processes using a novel rapid-scan, polarimetric, mobile, Doppler radar
Jana Houser, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. Bluestein and J. C. Snyder

Handout (937.1 kB)

835
Observing Atmospheric Dynamics from Satellite Sounding Pairs
William L. Smith Jr., NASA LaRC, Hampton, VA; and E. Weisz, N. Smith, and A. Larar

Evaluating Measurement Uncertainty and Performance of Vaisala Reference Radiosonde Prototype

836
An update on the TAMDAR sensor global network expansion and data utility
Neil A. Jacobs, AirDat LLC, Morrisville, NC; and P. Childs, M. Croke, A. Huffman, J. Nelson, J. T. Braid, Y. L. Liu, and X. Y. Huang

837
A Simple Method for Improving the Time-Stepping Accuracy of Weather and Climate Models
Paul D. Williams, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

838
Hidden Error Variance Theory: Deriving Optimal Combinations of Static and Flow Dependent Variances
Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop

839
Investigation of stochastic effect in an advanced global atmospheric model to improve weather and climate prediction
Myung-Seo Koo, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. Y. Hong

840
Assimilation of quality controlled AIRS temperature profiles using the NCEP GFS

841
Variational Cloud Analysis Using CRTM in a Multiscale Analysis
Yuanfu Xie, NOAA/ERL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. albers, D. Birkenheuer, and Z. Toth

Handout (4.6 MB)

842
Direct assimilation of wind speed and direction for the WRF model
Feng Gao, Panasonic Avionics Corporation, Morrisville, NC; and N. A. Jacobs, X. Y. Huang, and P. Childs

843
Use of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis in the Forecasting of Convective Events
Christopher N. Bednarczyk, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

844
Probabilistic forecasts of severe convection with a WRF-DART analysis and convection-permitting forecast system
Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and G. Romine, S. Tessendorf, and C. S. Schwartz

Handout (4.4 MB)

845
Evaluating Predictability of Severe Convection using a WRF Ensemble Kalman Filter
Michael A. Hollan, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

846
A Statistical and Modeling Approach to Improved Land Wind Forecasts Associated with Tropical Cyclones
Bryce Paul Tyner, Florida International University, Miami, FL

847
The Extended Global Ensemble Forecast System at NCEP
Malaquias Peña, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and D. Hou, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus

848
A Local Analysis of the Performance of the Ensemble Forecast Systems Included in TIGGE
Michael A. Herrera, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and I. Szunyogh

849
The Development of High Resolution Super Probabilistic Forecast (HRSPF)
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and H. Guan

Handout (632.8 kB)

850
Exploration of Global Model Predictions of a High Impact Winter Weather Event Using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
Daniel S. Russell, Current Affiliation, UCLA/ Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Norman, OK; and S. M. Hitchcock, D. Parsons, and N. New

Handout (1.8 MB)

851
Optimization of the Analog Ensemble Method
Luca Delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Eckel, B. Nagarajan, D. Rife, J. Knievel, T. McClung, and K. R. Searight

Handout (1.5 MB)

852
Newly Upgraded 16km Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System at NCEP
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, B. Zhou, D. Jovic, B. Ferrier, M. Pyle, B. Yang, G. Manikin, J. Zhu, J. Wolff, and B. J. Etherton

853
An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Spectral Nudging
Zhongfeng Xu, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and Z. L. Yang

854
Verifying the accuracy of experimental day-11 to day-14 weather forecasts
Harvey Stern, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and N. E. Davidson
Manuscript (167.2 kB)

Handout (484.0 kB)

855
Verification on tropical storm track prediction in SE Asia using GFS model
Cheuk Yi Joseph Lee, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and M. W. Wysocki

Handout (405.3 kB)

856
Late Season Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western Caribbean Sea
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart

857
An Operational Approach to Predicting the Global Circlulation Impacts of Simultaneous Interaction between the MJO and Equatorial Rossby Waves
Nicholas Joseph Schiraldi, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy, D. Margolin, and L. F. Bosart

858
Study of Mesoscale Convective Vortices associated with South Atlantic Convergence
M. F. L. quadro, IFSC, Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil; and M. A. F. Silva Dias, D. L. Herdies, and L. G. G. deGoncalves

859
A new parameterization of ice cloud optical properties for applications in radiative transfer models and general circulation models
Bingqi Yi, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and P. Yang, B. Baum, and T. L'Ecuyer

860
Mechanisms for Transient and Long-Duration Mesoscale Snowbands in Northeast U.S. Winter Storms
Jaymes S. Kenyon, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. S. Evans

Handout (5.0 MB)

861
Experimental Study of Advanced Cloud Microphysics in the U.S. Navy Global Environmental Model

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Recording files available
Session 4
Cross-cutting Applications Integrating Weather and Climate Forecasts Within Other Disciplines or Sectors
Location: Ballroom F (Austin Convention Center)
Host: Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications
Cochairs: Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, Colorado State University, Offutt AFB, NE
4:00 PM
4.1
Partners in Science: Ideas for Engaging the Public
Rajul Pandya, UCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
4.2
Probabilistic NWP-Dependent Volcanic Ash Detection in Satellite Data
Shona Mackie, University of Bristol, U.K., Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; and M. Watson
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
4.3
Developments of ensemble-based products for forecasters and decision support
David Richardson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and F. Pappenberger, I. Tsonevsky, E. Zsoter, and E. Andersson
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
4.4
Evaluation of the NSSL-WRF model in an Operational Colorado Flood Threat Prediction Program
John F. Henz, Dewberry, Denver, Colorado
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
4.5
New forecasting capabilities trialled in the London 2012 Olympics
Brian William Golding, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and S. Ballard, K. Mylne, A. Saulter, C. Wilson, P. Agnew, M. Weeks, R. Swinbank, W. Tennant, and N. Roberts
Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
Location: Exhibit Hall 4 (Austin Convention Center)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2013


93rd AMS Awards Banquet
Location: Ballroom D (Austin Convention Center)
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