Newly Upgraded 16km Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System at NCEP

Ensemble prediction system is a central piece in quantifying forecast confidence of a numerical model guidance, which plays an increasingly important role in decision-making process involving risk management. The NCEP SREF system was operationally implemented in 2001 and has become an integrated and critical part of the daily weather forecasting process in the U.S. National Weather Service. The system was recently upgraded and its performance was further improved. This talk will overview the modeling system, performance, capabilities of quantifying forecast uncertainty and ensemble products. Future plan will also be discussed.