Verification on tropical storm track prediction in SE Asia using GFS model

This study investigates the skill of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model in predicting tropical cyclones (TCs) tracks and intensity in SE Asia from 2007 to 2011. Data from 29 storms passing through the grid box of 20 to 25 N and 110 to 120 E in west Pacific Ocean are analyzed. The GFS lowest central pressure forecast is used to determine the forecasted location of the TCs. Forecasted tracks and central pressures are compared to the best track records of TCs produced by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Average errors in distance and pressure are calculated for different initializations using the great circle formula. While there is no significant tendency in changes of pressure errors, the distance errors increase in general after the first landfall.