Forecasting with Ensembles: A User Survey

The National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) partnership of NOAA NWS; Navy Meteorology and Oceanography; and US Air Force Weather Agency is collaborating on a multi-model global atmospheric ensemble. This ensemble, in conjunction with the Canadian global atmospheric ensemble, became available operationally for the public in January 2011. In order to assess the impact of the new ensemble system, forecaster understanding and forecaster acceptance, NUOPC has initiated an annual survey of Tri-agency forecasters and operations heads. The first annual survey revealed a number of issues and misconceptions on ensembles and how they are used by forecasters. It also revealed a need for regular training on ensemble products.