Forecast support for the Colorado region of the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment: Overview and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field experiment in the spring and summer of 2012 collected observations over three regions: Colorado, Alabama, and Oklahoma/Texas. In support of the project, each region had forecasters providing probabilistic information each day about the likelihood of deep convection and the convective mode (e.g., supercells, isolated convection, squall lines, etc.). For the Colorado region, the forecast team included faculty and students from the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, and staff from the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA). Making regular forecasts and seeing the operation of a large field campaign provided unique educational experiences for the students.

In this presentation, we provide an overview of the forecast activities for the Colorado domain, including an objective evaluation of the daily probabilistic forecasts. Radar observations of deep convection and standard metrics for verifying probabilistic forecasts (e.g., area under the ROC curve, reliability diagrams) are used. The implications of the results for understanding the value that humans can add to the convective forecast process will be discussed, and suggestions for forecast activities in future field campaigns will be offered.