Forecasting lightning occurrence with PLR - Method update and applications

The lightning forecasting method called Potential Lightning Region (PLR), which is a result of combining meteorological variables obtained from high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations to predict probabilities of lightning flash occurrence over a region of interest, is modified here to be model grid-scale relevant in 2 km using a different set of WRF parameters, such as: most unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (mCAPE), K-Index (KI), Total Totals Index (ITT), 700-500 hPa lapse rate of equivalent potential temperature, vertical velocity averaged between 850 hPa and 700 hPa, and ice mixing ratio integrated from 700 hPa to 500 hPa. Three case studies show that the modification appears to work quite well, and that PLR can be calculated on high-resolution research-scale operationally compatible forecast grid. Besides these analyses, surface data assimilation is used on the WRF simulation of one case study in order to compare and evaluate the PLR results in both situations.