Benefits of Using Total Lightning Data in the Automated Creation of Thunderstorm Probability Forecasts

A study has been undertaken to quantify the benefit of using network lightning data in the automated-creation of thunderstorm probability forecasts. Specifically, the lightning data were used to Forward Error Correct (FEC) the raw thunderstorm probability guidance. The data were deemed applicable to the process if within 30-minutes of forecast generation time and 20 km of any given forecast location. The comparative analysis to be presented was performed between the raw METAR output, the FEC thunderstorm probability forecasts, and the non-FEC thunderstorm probability forecasts.