Representations of risk space and decision-making in tornado warnings

This presentation will highlight preliminary results from a set of cognitive decision experiments, testing the impacts of warning design choices on protective responses in a geospatial context. The presentation will specifically highlight the potential for communicating warning information probabilistically, e.g., per results of the National Severe Storms Laboratory Warn-on-Forecast program. Applying theories of risky choice and cartography, deterministic and probabilistic representations of tornado risk will be generated for use in the decision experiments. Evaluation will be based on the cumulative outcome of warning responses after numerous trials and subjective ratings of trust placed in the forecast system. Verbally delivered warning tiers will also be tested in the design. Results will highlight effects on warning response given distance-to-storm, boundary inclusion/exclusion, the interaction of graphical and verbal information, and symbolic elements introduced with probabilistic designs. A test for spatial cognition and risk aversion, in addition to select socio-demographic information, will be used to examine differences in performance and preference among participants.