Integrated Turbulence Forecasts

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Wednesday, 5 February 2014: 4:45 PM
Georgia Ballroom 3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Donald W. McCann, McCann Aviation Weather Reaserch, Inc., Overland Park, KS; and D. W. Lennartson and J. H. Block

Each of the four major causes of turbulence, boundary layer, clear-air, mountain wave, and convective, has its own unique set of atmospheric conditions favorable for it. Forecast algorithms have been developed for each turbulence cause, and, if the algorithms' outputs are in the same units, the outputs can be added to combine each into a single turbulence forecast. However, adding turbulence outputs does not address the possible interaction of initiating mechanisms. For example, the conditions for mountain waves to break may not be favorable by themselves, and conditions for turbulent unbalanced flow gravity waves may not be favorable by themselves, but a mountain wave superimposed on an unbalanced flow gravity wave may have sufficient amplitude to initiate turbulence.

We describe several turbulence initiating mechanisms that may interact with each other. Then we describe how we integrate these in one integrated algorithm from which we are then able to produce a combined global EDR (Eddy Dissipation Rate) based turbulence forecast using industry leading numerical models.