A Review of Current Severe Local Storms Forecasting Techniques, and a Look Into the Future

Over the past decade, the process of forecasting severe thunderstorms and tornadoes has evolved into a complex blend of observational analysis, multi-model examination, and application of ingredient-based understanding. This talk will examine some of the cutting-edge tools and techniques employed at the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and discuss how they are used to develop our various forecast products. A few example cases will be shown to illustrate when these techniques have succeeded and failed. Finally, the author will discuss tools on the horizon that could make substantial changes in how severe storms are forecast.