Multi-Scale Predictability Aspects of Superstorm Sandy

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Thursday, 6 February 2014: 4:00 PM
Georgia Ballroom 2 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Langland, P. A. Reinecke, and C. M. Amerault

It has been suggested in a number of previous studies that the intensification and track of tropical cyclones may be sensitive to aspects of large-scale forcing, as well as internal mesoscale dynamics. In this presentation, the degree to which the track and intensification of Superstorm Sandy is sensitive to small perturbations to the basic properties of the synoptic-scale, as well as the environment in the immediate vicinity of the storm, is explored. We make use of the Navy's high-resolution mesoscale modeling system COAMPS to provide ensemble forecasts, numerical experiments with and without the assimilation of specific observation types (e.g., satellite, higher frequency radiosondes), and mesoscale nested adjoint sensitivity and observation impact calculations; all of which provide insight into the initial state sensitivity and predictability issues for Hurricane Sandy. The results underscore the importance of multiple scales that influence the predictability of Sandy's track and intensity.