The Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of the 24 May 2011 Oklahoma Tornadic Supercell Storms

A convective-scale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system is developed using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) software for a short-range ensemble forecast of the 24 May 2011 Oklahoma tornadic supercell storms. A 45-member convective-scale ensemble is initialized from 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model using time-lagged ensemble method. Two sets of data assimilation and forecast experiments are conducted using either fixed physics or multiple physics parameterization schemes across the ensemble members. The reflectivity observations from Multi Radar Multi Sensor (MRMS) system, radial velocity observations from three WSR-88D radars and surface observations from Oklahoma Mesonets are assimilated into the ensembles for 1-h period. Preliminary work seeks to evaluate which ensemble system forecasts more accurate reflectivity structure, coldpool and low level mesocyclone tracks of the supercell storms.