Modern Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction: Assessment, Applications, and the Paths Ahead

This talk will focus on three primary aspects related to storm-scale (convection-permitting) numerical weather prediction (NWP): 1) the current state of the science and technology, 2) discussion of the current limitations and weaknesses of convection-permitting NWP models, and 3) where new applications and technology may lead us over the next 5 to 10 years. Emphasis will be placed on how meaningful forecast guidance is extracted from convection-permitting ensembles and how the goodness of convective forecasts is assessed. Finally, the challenges of improving storm-scale data assimilation and model physics will be highlighted, with attention given to the development of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) “Warn-on-Forecast” Program.