Recent Developments in Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge

The National Weather Service (NWS), in furtherance of its mission to help protect life and property from disastrous storms, developed Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) guidance. P-Surge encapsulates the uncertainty in forecasting tropical cyclones, making it very useful for the storm surge watch/warning currently under development. To better support both the storm surge watch/warning and communication of storm surge risk to the public, P-Surge was enhanced in 2013 by:

1) Creating probability products at 6 hour intervals rather than a single 0-80 hour interval;

2) Incorporating gridded tidal computations into individual storm runs;

3) Providing both above ground and above datum products; and

4) Incorporating the latest North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88) Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) basins.

Using examples from recent storms, this presentation will discuss each of the above improvements in detail, the impetus for each change, the methodological and related advances needed to implement the changes, and the benefits of the changes to the operational and academic audiences of P-Surge guidance. The presentation will also include a brief overview of historical approaches to hurricane storm surge guidance as context for those new to or less familiar with the subject.