Using satellite-observed Storm Top Features for Clear Air Turbulence Forecast

Thunderstorms pose great danger to aviation and the clear air turbulence (CAT) produced by them is one of the most serious hazards. CAT is difficult to observe in situ due to its short duration and range, and it would be highly beneficial to the aviation industry to be able to forecast it well ahead of time. In this paper, I would like to present several satellite observed features on top of some severe thunderstorms that are likely to produce CAT, and the feasibility of using these features for the purpose of CAT forecasting. These features include the cold V, post-OT warm area, above anvil cirrus plumes, and storm top ship waves. Through the use of a cloud resolving model, the physics of many of these features are now much better understood and the internal gravity waves associated with the storm plays a central role here. With an adequate understanding of the gravity wave physics, we can hopefully form a set of forecast algorithms combined with satellite data to predict the location, timing and magnitude of CAT