TJ12.3
Will the future atmospheric circulation favor the landfall of Sandy-like superstorms?

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Thursday, 6 February 2014: 11:30 AM
Georgia Ballroom 2 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Elizabeth A. Barnes, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and L. M. Polvani and A. H. Sobel

Superstorm Sandy ravaged the Eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here, we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy's unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast.