Optimal Observing for Short-Range Prediction of Severe Convective Storms

As recommended in several reports from the National Research Council and instrumentation workshops, profiling systems are best designed to monitor rapid changes in the local severe convective environment, notably temporal changes in moist static stability and shear. Weather radars provide critical information about internal storm structure and processes, but do not observe these environmental features, even upon considering thermodynamic retrieval. An assessment of recent successes using advanced methods for assimilation of Doppler weather radar into convectively permitting NWP models to achieve the goal of a one-hour probabilistic “Warn On Forecast” capability will be presented. Challenges of relying entirely on radar data assimilation towards meeting this goal will be addressed. Observational analyses of convection initiation processes using ground-based profiling systems (microwave and infrared radiometers, Doppler wind profilers and wind lidars, and water vapor lidars) will be shown. The role of possible future satellite advanced imaging and hyperspectral sounders, and dense in situ measurements of the local storm environment gained from use of unmanned aircraft will be discussed using results from Observing System Simulation Experiments and other methods.