Weather Challenges to Urban and Ecosystem Environments along Florida's West Coast

The Tampa Bay region contains a mix of weather-vulnerable urban infrastructure including fuel depots and fertilizer processing amongst underlying ecosystems. As sea level continues to rise, the impacts will be manifested via coastal storm surges. The potential consequences of a major storm surge in the region are largely uncertain but potentially immense. Roughly a third of the population of the greater Tampa Bay area lives at elevations less than 3.3 m above mean sea level. In recent years Hurricanes Ivan (2004), Katrina (2005), and Ike (2008) caused significant damage to petroleum infrastructure. Similar damage could occur at the Port of Tampa, home to the highest volume petroleum terminals in Florida. A natural gas pipeline with a capacity of 1.26 billion cubic feet per day is mostly unprotected over near shore land areas. Other weather challenges exist, such as freezing temperatures and too much rain, and may have direct or indirect impacts on sensitive ecosystems. Gypsum stacks associated with the phosphate industry have failed in the past, from heavy rains and wind, and poured millions of gallons of highly acidic water into Tampa Bay and associated rivers. Ammonia associated with fertilizer processing is transported via pipeline that is exposed in some areas and has exhibited vulnerabilities in the past. Local chlorine containment facilities could also be breached by a major storm surge. Although there are only a few dams and reservoirs in the area, those, too, have revealed weaknesses in the past.

This presentation will show infrastructure damage, estuarine destruction and contamination resulting from past storms along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts and translate those past events into “what-if” scenarios for the Tampa Bay Area. The most vulnerable areas and evacuation zones related to potential storm surge categories will be shown with gridded population maps. The integration of hazardous material sites, and environmentally sensitive areas such as sea grass areas, mangroves, and nesting sites, will also be discussed.