Evaluating the Predictive Skill of CFSv2 Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts in China

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Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Yang Lang, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; and Q. Duan and A. Ye

This study investigates if the seasonal precipitation and temperature predictions from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) of the U.S. National Center for Environmental Predictions have any meaningful predictive skill in China. CFSv2 is a climate forecast product with global coverage at approximately 1x1 resolution. The distinguishing advantage of the CFSv2 data is that its hindcast data archive covers the period from 1982 to 2007. This allows us to conduct an objective evaluation of the skill of the CFSv2 predictions. In this study, we use a variety of performance metrics to evaluate the skill of precipitation and temperature predictions from CFSv2 over 17 regions covering the entire continental China. Our preliminary results indicate that CFSv2 temperature predictions have significant skill, but with strong seasonal patterns. The skill seems to be not dependent on lead times. Skill of precipitation predictions is generally much less compared to temperature predictions. But in some regions and for some seasons there is meaningful skill in precipitation predictions. This study suggests that CFSv2 has potential to be used to predict droughts in some regions in China.