Global aerosol forecasting system at NCEP: Overview, Status, and Applications

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is constructing NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) as its next-generation operational system and has collaborated with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and Howard University to develop NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) system for predicting the distribution of atmospheric aerosols.

The rational for developing a global aerosol forecast and assimilation capability at NCEP includes: (1) to improve weather forecasts and climate predictions by taking into account of aerosols effects on radiation and clouds; (2) to better utilize satellite observations by incorporating aerosols as a key component, e.g., atmospheric correction; (3) to provide aerosol lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for regional aerosol/air quality models; and (4) to assess aerosol impacts on climate, human health, ecosystem, and visibility. The ultimate goal at NCEP is a full-blown Earth system with the inclusion of aerosol-radiation feedback and aerosol-cloud interaction.

NGAC Version 1.0 (NGAC V1) provides the operational global dust forecasts at NOAA since September 2012. This presentation will provide an overview of the NGAC global aerosol forecasting system, discuss the use of satellite-based biomass burning emissions for improving aerosol forecasts, and demonstrate the use of dynamical LBCs from NGAC to improve regional air quality forecasts.