Social Vulnerability to Disaster: Structural and Demographic Predictors of Global Flood Mortality, 2008—2012

The following study examines the causes of global flood fatalities between 2008-2012 to explain variation in mortality outcomes between countries. Data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DF0) and World Bank were merged and analyzed using a hierarchical random-intercept Poisson model to estimate the effects of structural, demographic, and environmental predictors on casualty risks. Although results indicate the presence of intense floods increases risks, sociodemographic variables also held a strong influence on the model. Findings suggest that more urbanized countries housing younger populations may suffer greater vulnerability to flooding in comparison to more rural, older populations. The significance associated with population density vanished in more complex multivariate models, possibly implying a more complex relationship between space and risk than previously thought. Future research should be directed towards understanding why urban residents and younger populations endure greater flood hazards, and policymakers should consider a more cautious and strategic approach towards urban development, especially in flood prone areas.