Assessing Sugarcane Vulnerability to Climate Change at Basin Scale

Because the biofuels started to be cogitated in a world scale production, preoccupation with damages they may cause to Environmental Protection Areas, energy, water and food security, and biome areas began to grow. In Brazil, the ethanol from sugarcane is the most important biofuel. According to reports from Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply, Brazil has a privilege position in the production of ethanol, together with USA, enhancing the importance of information on sugarcane planting areas, vulnerability and agro-climatic aptitude. Agro-climatic zoning can be used to determine potential production areas, and can be useful to assess the environmental damages caused by the ethanol increasing consume.

In this work, the agro-climatic zoning is obtained from the dynamical downscaling of the CMIP5 models over the Paranaíba River Basin, which has been considered as a suitable area for ethanol production by Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association. Additionally, an evaluation of sugarcane vulnerability to climate changes, as well as possible areas of expansion, was performed in order to assess the viability of ethanol as a sustainable biofuel.