Implementation of Upper-Ocean Temperature Measurements in Operational Hurricane Reconnaissance: Results from the AXBT Demonstration Project

In 2011 the Working Group for Hurricane and Winter Storms Operations and Research approved a multi-year AXBT Demonstration Project to assess whether the collection of upper-ocean temperature observations during operational TC reconnaissance missions could improve coupled numerical model forecasts of TC track and intensity. Results from the first three seasons, in which over 450 AXBTs were deployed during more than 40 U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron missions included successful near-real-time assimilation of upper-ocean temperature observations, increased model accuracy of the upper-ocean thermal structure, improved track forecasts in a coupled dynamical model, and minor improvements in forecast intensity in both coupled dynamical and statistical models. Here, the (1) 2011-2013 operations summary will be presented, as well as (2) the status of the data assimilation in various coupled models run operationally and in research mode, (3) new results from the 2012-2013 seasons, (4) quantification of AXBT observation impacts, and (5) future plans for the AXBT program.