Analysis of Convective Weather Impact Prediction on Arrival Routes in the New York Airspace

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Sunday, 2 February 2014
Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Morgan E. Gorris, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

The presence of convective weather along arrival routes can have a significant impact on the traffic flow of arrival operations in both the immediate and surrounding airspace. The integration of weather and air traffic in a decision support tool can assist air traffic managers in anticipating weather impacts on arrival routes. An example of an operational tool of this kind is the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT), which forecasts the magnitude of convective weather impact on arrival routes. This report presents the performance of a RAPT-like algorithm in terms of forecast accuracy and its correlation to operations in the New York arrival airspace. The evaluation includes calculations of the forecast accuracy for route blockage status of the RAPT-like algorithm and the corresponding effect on air traffic arrival rates. This study found that the RAPT algorithm applied to arrival aircraft is efficient in forecasting an available jet route, detecting a temporarily closed air route, and indicating when an air route needs further evaluation of its availability. For example, with a forecast horizon of 15 minutes, the algorithm predicts un-impacted routes with 95% accuracy and impacted routes with 54% accuracy.