Predictive Skill of Temperature and Precipitation Forecast Deviations from Climatology in the Boulder, Colorado Flood and the August 2013 Central US Drought
The overarching goal of this project is to use the Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) along with climatological data to indicate regions in the US where the forecast precipitation amounts and temperatures approach record levels. Using climatological data for numerous US cities from 1981-2010, forecasted extreme precipitation events and temperatures can be mapped to show locations in the US that will deviate significantly from their climatological average over a 3-day, 7-day and 10-day forecast period using the NAM and GFS models. This presentation will focus on the algorithms used to define extreme events as well as highlight a mapping technique used to notify the public of the forecasted extreme events. The main emphasis of this presentation will be to showcase model forecasts for the mid-September extreme rainfall in Colorado as well as the central US drought in August.