Impact of Air-Sea Interaction on Regional Extended-Range Prediction for the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone 05

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Wednesday, 7 January 2015
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, J. D. Doyle, P. May, S. Chen, M. Flatau, and L. W. O'Neill

Extended-range prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Tropical Cyclone 05 (TC05) that occurred during the DYNAMO period from November to December 2011 is conducted using the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPSŪ) in two-way coupled and uncoupled modes. Model results are evaluated to assess the impact of air-sea interaction on regional modeling for intraseasonal prediction. Model biases and correlations with the observation are investigated with increased forecast lead time in 15-day interval to find the predictability when simultaneous air-sea interaction is considered in the model simulation. The assessment and comparison between coupled and uncoupled simulations include the MJO events, initiation of convectively-coupled Kelvin waves and propagation of MJO over the Maritime continent. Air-sea interaction impact on interaction between the MJO, Kelvin wave, westerly wind burst (WWB) and Tropical cyclone 05 are also investigated for the two-month simulations.