Recent Trends in Forecasters' Use of Post-processed Guidance (Invited Presentation)

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Tuesday, 6 January 2015: 4:00 PM
211A West Building (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, College Park, MD

With the introduction and subsequent improvement of Model Output Statistics, forecasters have increasingly embraced post-processed model guidance in the forecast process. Recently, the changing nature of extreme events and evolving user requirements are demanding innovations to traditional post-processed guidance. At the Weather Prediction Center, forecasters interpret and apply a wide variety of post-processed guidance to serve as a center of excellence in quantitative precipitation forecasting, medium range forecasting, and winter weather forecasting. Based on WPC's experience, this talk will explore recent trends in forecasters' use of post-processed guidance, including traditional MOS, blends of multiple models, best-worse case scenarios, reforecasts, and neighborhood approaches. Further, innovative visualization of post-processed fields that allow forecasters to quickly assess guidance and focus on high-impact events will be highlighted. Such changes are facilitating the evolution of the role of the forecaster to higher-order decision making and decision support activities.