Navy Global Predictions for the DYNAMO Time Period
The use of fixed SSTs is clearly sub-optimal. Biases in monthly mean fields are far more pronounced in the simulations where the SST is held fixed as compared to those in simulations where updated SST analyses are used. Biases in the monthly mean fields are further reduced when NAVGEM is coupled to HYCOM. Differences in SST can “migrate” to substantial changes in the time-mean land-surface temperatures, illustrating the substantial impact of SSTs over the full domain. Concerning the simulation of the MJO, some improvement is noted when the system is fully coupled, although the simulations still exhibit deficiencies such as eastward propagation that is too slow, and difficulty propagating over the maritime continent. Simulations that are started every 5 days indicate that the NAVGEM uncoupled system has difficulty predicting MJO initiation, but simulations started when the MJO is active in the Indian Ocean are able to capture eastward propagation characteristics. The coupled NAVGEM-HYCOM system shows ability to capture the initiation of an MJO event 20 days into the forecast.