Overview of an integrated marine Arctic prediction system for METAREAs

In December 2007 Canada accepted official designation as the Issuing Service for meteorological Marine Safety Information in the form of forecasts / warnings and ice bulletins for METAREAs XVII and XVIII as part of the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System. These areas are in the Arctic bordering on Canada. An important part of Environment Canada's involvement is the development of an integrated marine Arctic prediction system and satellite products in support of monitoring and warnings. In particular, our group is working on the development, validation and implementation of marine forecasts using a regional high resolution coupled multi-component (atmosphere, land, snow, ice, ocean and wave) modelling and data assimilation system to predict near surface atmospheric conditions, sea ice (concentration, thickness, pressure, drift, ice edge), freezing spray, waves and ocean conditions (temperature and currents). The core of the system consists of the GEM (Global Environmental Multi-scale) model as the atmospheric component coupled to the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ocean model, the CICE ice model and the WAVEWATCHIII® wave model. An ice-ocean data assimilation system is being developed in collaboration with Mercator-Océan using their system for ocean data assimilation together with the ice analysis system developed at Environment Canada. The METAREAs research and development is a cornerstone activity within the Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems (CONCEPTS). This presentation will provide an overview of these activities, illustrate systems implemented and developments in progress as we approach the completion of the first phase of METAREAs, and discuss plans for future operational systems.