The ‘Unusual' Evolution of Hurricane Arthur 2014: GOES-R and JPSS Satellite Proving Ground Perspective

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
Monday, 5 January 2015: 4:45 PM
230 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Michael J. Folmer, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. P. Cangialosi, J. Halverson, E. Berndt, J. M. Sienkiewicz, S. J. Goodman, and M. Goldberg

Hurricane Arthur (2014) was an early season hurricane that had its roots in a convective complex in the Southern Plains of the U.S. As the complex moved into northern Texas, a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) formed and drifted east, eventually moving off the coast of South Carolina. The MCV drifted south and slowly acquired tropical characteristics, eventually becoming a Category 2 hurricane that would affect much of eastern North Carolina prior to the 4th of July holiday weekend. Arthur continued up the coast, brushing portions of southeast New England and merged with an upper-level low, completing a full extratropical transition in the process, producing damaging wind gusts in portions of the Canadian Maritimes.

As part of the GOES-R and JPSS Satellite Proving Grounds, multiple proxy and operational products were available to analyze and forecast this complex evolution. The National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch were able to monitor the tropical and extratropical transition of Arthur using various convective and red, green, blue (RGB) products that have been introduced in recent years. During the MCV stage, the Overshooting Top Detection, GOES-R Convective Initiation, and Lightning Density products allowed forecasters to monitor convective development and rainfall potential. As the MCV transitioned into a tropical cyclone, forecasters were again able to use the convective products to monitor the cyclone's intensity. Finally, during the extratropical transition, the RGB Air Mass product and AIRS/CrIS ozone products were available as a compliment to water vapor imagery to identify the upper-level low that absorbed Arthur. This paper will discuss Arthur's evolution through the eyes of the various Satellite Proving Ground demonstrations.