Future flood frequency under sea level rise scenarios, case study of Annapolis MD

The effect of sea level rise (SLR) on exceedence probabilities for annual flooding at coastal locations is explored in this paper. We assess four future SLR scenarios given by the USACE (2009) and how these SLR scenarios affect monthly flooding statistics. Focusing on one case site, Annapolis, MD, the probability density function of the monthly maximum tide gauge record is fit to a Pareto-tail distribution. Random sampling from this distribution are then performed on top of the four future SLR scenarios. Exceedence probabilities for a storm tide to exceed the coastal flood stage, whose elevation was established from statistics of extreme high water events, are then calculated from the interpolated Pareto cumulative distribution. We illustrate that even mild increases in the MSL acceleration leads to drastically higher exceedence probabilities of coastal flooding for this east coast location.